Stock fact sheet · data as of
Graham Corporation (GHM): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Industrial - Machinery · United States · High Growth
Is GHM undervalued?
At 71.15 (close of 16 Oct 2026), GHM trades 92% over the GLS average fair value of 37.13, with 0 of 6 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The 6 models disagree widely: EPV gives 11.32 while GLS Growth gives 62.38. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files GHM under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for GHM
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 45.85 | -36% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 19.49 | -73% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 58.29 | -18% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 25.47 | -64% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 62.38 | -12% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 11.32 | -84% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -2.29 | -103% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 125.00 | +76% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: GHM passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.9 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 7.9%, ROE 8.9%, ROA 3.9% - with debt at 0.13 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Graham Corporation pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Defense 87%, Space 13% (quarter Q1 FY2027).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 7.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.9 / 10 | ROE | 8.9% |
| Debt / equity | 0.13 | ROA | 3.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -0.7% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 44: Weak
GHM scores 44 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 0/25, Health 9/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 17/20, Stability 10/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 70% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (17 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 1,116 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 268k shares a day on a market cap of $835M, with a beta of 1.08; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 10 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -92% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.9/10 | |
| Premium | 17 / 20 | implied volatility 70% | |
| Stability | 10 / 20 | 268k shares/day, $835M cap, beta 1.08 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 6 Nov 2026 (before the open), 21 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Industrial - Machinery
The 12 companies below are the closest to Graham Corporation by market cap within the Industrial - Machinery industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTW The Manitowoc Company, Inc. | 22.43 | 16.36 | -37% | 47Weak | $809M |
| KODK Eastman Kodak Company | 8.97 | 57.11 | +84% | 45Weak | $878M |
| ASTE Astec Industries, Inc. | 38.92 | 27.27 | -43% | 40Weak | $895M |
| PLOW Douglas Dynamics, Inc. | 39.87 | 32.08 | -24% | 60Fair | $920M |
| BW Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. | 4.96 | - | - | 45Weak | $739M |
| KRNT Kornit Digital Ltd. | 17.17 | 7.04 | -144% | 43Weak | $738M |
| PKOH Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. | 47.30 | 52.99 | +11% | 58Fair | $685M |
| PSIX Power Solutions International, Inc. | 46.61 | 85.18 | +45% | 66Good | $1.1B |
| TNC Tennant Company | 65.66 | 30.28 | -117% | 43Weak | $1.1B |
| HY Hyster-Yale Materials Handling, Inc. | 30.10 | 56.19 | +46% | 45Weak | $540M |
| MCCK Mestek, Inc. | 62.00 | 106.31 | +42% | 39No options | $468M |
| LXFR Luxfer Holdings PLC | 17.24 | 7.86 | -119% | 49Weak | $465M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about GHM
Is GHM undervalued right now?
No: at 71.15 the stock trades 92% above the GLS average fair value of 37.13 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of GHM and what does it mean?
GHM scores 44 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for GHM?
37.13 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 6 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Graham Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 6 Nov 2026 (before the open), 21 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does GHM have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 196 listed contracts with 1,116 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 70% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.