Stock fact sheet · data as of
Douglas Dynamics, Inc. (PLOW): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Industrial - Machinery · United States · Value
Is PLOW undervalued?
PLOW closed at 39.87 on 16 Oct 2026, which is 24% above the GLS average fair value of 32.08 from 9 models. 6 of them value the shares below today's price. Our screens read that as "no margin of safety": the stock is not a value candidate at this price, whatever the quality numbers say.
The 9 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 6.61 while 10 Cap gives 59.55. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files PLOW under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for PLOW
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 50.67 | +27% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 25.75 | -35% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 31.81 | -20% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 6.61 | -83% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 21.84 | -45% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 59.55 | +49% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 49.84 | +25% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 17.36 | -56% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 25.26 | -37% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -3.43 | -109% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 56.50 | +42% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health PLOW scores 9/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 5.7 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 9.4%, ROE 16.7%, ROA 7.5% - with debt at 0.78 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.3%.
The dividend yield is 2.96% at a payout ratio of 54%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Government Contract 94%, Product and Service, Other 6% (quarter Q3 FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 9 / 9 | ROIC | 9.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.7 / 10 | ROE | 16.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.78 | ROA | 7.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.3% | Payout ratio | 54% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 60: Fair
PLOW scores 60 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 2/25, Health 20/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 9/20. Value (2/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 48% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 806 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 143k shares a day on a market cap of $920M, with a beta of 1.20 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 9 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 2 / 25 | -24% margin of safety | |
| Health | 20 / 20 | Piotroski 9/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 5.7/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 48% | |
| Stability | 9 / 20 | 143k shares/day, $920M cap, beta 1.20 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (before the open), 17 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Industrial - Machinery
The 12 companies below are the closest to Douglas Dynamics, Inc. by market cap within the Industrial - Machinery industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTE Astec Industries, Inc. | 38.92 | 27.27 | -43% | 40Weak | $895M |
| KODK Eastman Kodak Company | 8.97 | 57.11 | +84% | 45Weak | $878M |
| GHM Graham Corporation | 71.15 | 37.13 | -92% | 44Weak | $835M |
| MTW The Manitowoc Company, Inc. | 22.43 | 16.36 | -37% | 47Weak | $809M |
| PSIX Power Solutions International, Inc. | 46.61 | 85.18 | +45% | 66Good | $1.1B |
| TNC Tennant Company | 65.66 | 30.28 | -117% | 43Weak | $1.1B |
| BW Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. | 4.96 | - | - | 45Weak | $739M |
| KRNT Kornit Digital Ltd. | 17.17 | 7.04 | -144% | 43Weak | $738M |
| PKOH Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. | 47.30 | 52.99 | +11% | 58Fair | $685M |
| HY Hyster-Yale Materials Handling, Inc. | 30.10 | 56.19 | +46% | 45Weak | $540M |
| ATS ATS Corporation | 18.09 | 17.64 | -3% | 67Good | $1.8B |
| EPAC Enerpac Tool Group Corp. | 35.07 | 47.54 | +26% | 86Prime | $1.8B |
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about PLOW
Is PLOW undervalued right now?
No: at 39.87 the stock trades 24% above the GLS average fair value of 32.08 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of PLOW and what does it mean?
PLOW scores 60 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for PLOW?
32.08 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Douglas Dynamics, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (before the open), 17 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does PLOW have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 148 listed contracts with 806 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 48% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.