Stock fact sheet · data as of
Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Basic Materials · Copper · Canada · High Growth
Is HBM undervalued?
HBM closed at 24.22 on 16 Oct 2026, 16% below the GLS average fair value of 28.79 from 9 models (3 of them above the price). That is a moderate margin of safety: the stock passes the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan, and the Wheel Score gives it 19 of the 25 Value points.
There is a wide gap between DDM (0.4017) and GLS Growth (83.86). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files HBM under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for HBM
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 5.82 | -76% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 21.30 | -12% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 45.53 | +88% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 16.12 | -33% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 83.86 | +246% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 44.55 | +84% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 22.75 | -6% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 0.4017 | -98% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 18.73 | -23% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -4.11 | -117% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 32.00 | +32% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Hudbay Minerals Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.9/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 13.2%, ROE 17.6%, ROA 9.2% - with debt at 0.34 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 2.3%.
The dividend yield is 0.11% with a payout ratio of 1% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business.
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.9 / 10 | ROE | 17.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.34 | ROA | 9.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.3% | Payout ratio | 1% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 76: Good
With a Wheel Score of 76 - the Good band - Hudbay Minerals Inc. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 19/25, Health 13/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 16/20; Moat (7/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 59% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 35,015 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 3.9M shares a day on a market cap of $10.8B, with a beta of 2.31 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 19 / 25 | 16% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.9/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 59% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 3.9M shares/day, $10.8B cap, beta 2.31 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Copper
The 8 companies below are the closest to Hudbay Minerals Inc. by market cap within the Copper industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TECK Teck Resources Limited | 64.80 | 51.45 | -26% | 59Fair | $31.3B |
| ERO Ero Copper Corp. | 34.75 | 53.14 | +35% | 83Prime | $3.6B |
| TGB Trekor Metals Limited | 8.20 | 3.47 | -137% | 55Fair | $3.0B |
| IE Ivanhoe Electric Inc. | 8.73 | 0.6629 | -1217% | 40Weak | $1.4B |
| FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | 70.06 | 31.45 | -123% | 60Fair | $100.7B |
| SCCO Southern Copper Corporation | 200.68 | 98.61 | -104% | 62Fair | $169.4B |
| LCGMD Lion Copper Corp. | 4.17 | 14.14 | +71% | 39No options | $67M |
| CAEN California-Engels Mining Company | 4.00 | 1.49 | -169% | 22No options | $3M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HBM
Is HBM undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 24.22 the stock trades 16% below the average fair value of 28.79 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of HBM and what does it mean?
HBM scores 76 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for HBM?
28.79 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Hudbay Minerals Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HBM have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 130 listed contracts with 35,015 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 59% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.