Ero Copper Corp. (ERO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is ERO undervalued?

At 34.75 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ERO trades 35% below the GLS average fair value of 53.14. That average comes from 7 models run on the latest filings, and 3 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Ero Copper Corp. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.

The 7 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 2.53 while GLS Growth gives 162.60. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files ERO under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.

Nine valuation models for ERO

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

On financial health ERO scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.7 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.

Returns on capital are high - ROIC 17.1%, ROE 28.7%, ROA 14.0% - with debt at 0.68 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.2%.

Ero Copper Corp. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.

Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 83: Prime

ERO scores 83 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (18/20), the GLS moat (7/15), the option premium on offer (18/20) and how easily the stock trades (15/20).

Implied volatility is 66% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (18 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 101,068 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 908k shares a day on a market cap of $3.6B, with a beta of 1.59 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Copper

The 8 companies below are the closest to Ero Copper Corp. by market cap within the Copper industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

⚖ Compare ERO with 7 of them   All Basic Materials stocks →