Stock fact sheet · data as of
HBT Financial, Inc. (HBT): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Defensive
Is HBT undervalued?
At 35.37 (close of 16 Oct 2026), HBT trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 37.22 (5.0% below fair value). 9 models produced a value and they split 4 above the price to 5 below. A stock priced at fair value earns about half of the Wheel Score's Value points; the rest of the score comes from health, moat, premium and stability.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 13.54 while 10 Cap gives 58.69. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files HBT under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for HBT
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 54.62 | +54% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 31.80 | -10% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 54.76 | +55% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 18.92 | -47% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 26.84 | -24% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 58.69 | +66% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 52.09 | +47% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 13.54 | -62% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 23.75 | -33% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -98.85 | -379% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 38.00 | +7% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - HBT passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.9 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 11.3%, ROE 12.5%, ROA 1.5% - with debt at 0.11 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.9%.
The dividend yield is 2.60% at a payout ratio of 37%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Wealth management fees 40%, Card income 35%, Service charges on deposit accounts 25% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 4/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 11.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.9 / 10 | ROE | 12.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.11 | ROA | 1.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.9% | Payout ratio | 37% |
| Institutions | 4 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 64: Fair
HBT scores 64 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 15/25, Health 13/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 8/20. Stability (8/20) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 43% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 568 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 102k shares a day on a market cap of $1.3B, with a beta of 0.49 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 8 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 15 / 25 | 5% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.9/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 43% | |
| Stability | 8 / 20 | 102k shares/day, $1.3B cap, beta 0.49 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
HBT Financial, Inc. reports earnings on 26 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to HBT Financial, Inc. by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEBO Peoples Bancorp Inc. | 35.79 | 52.53 | +32% | 81Prime | $1.3B |
| OSBC Old Second Bancorp, Inc. | 24.85 | 30.72 | +19% | 76Good | $1.3B |
| FMBH First Mid Bancshares, Inc. | 49.29 | 62.77 | +21% | 72Good | $1.3B |
| CTBI Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. | 74.43 | 107.06 | +30% | 80Prime | $1.4B |
| WABC Westamerica Bancorporation | 58.70 | 68.31 | +14% | 70Good | $1.4B |
| PFBC Preferred Bank | 101.99 | 209.94 | +51% | 77Good | $1.2B |
| TMP Tompkins Financial Corporation | 95.86 | 129.17 | +26% | 72Good | $1.4B |
| AMAL Amalgamated Financial Corp. | 47.09 | 76.20 | +38% | 84Prime | $1.4B |
| BHRB Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. | 69.75 | 95.74 | +27% | 39No options | $1.4B |
| FMBL Farmers & Merchants Bank of Long Beach | 9,699.00 | 12,096.29 | +20% | 39No options | $1.2B |
| AGBK AGI Inc | 7.28 | 42.58 | +83% | 39No options | $1.2B |
| WTBFB W.T.B. Financial Corporation | 459.31 | 512.71 | +10% | 39No options | $1.2B |
⚖ Compare HBT with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HBT
Is HBT undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 35.37 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 37.22 (5.0% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of HBT and what does it mean?
HBT scores 64 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for HBT?
37.22 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does HBT Financial, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 26 Oct 2026 (before the open), 10 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HBT have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 88 listed contracts with 568 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 43% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.