Stock fact sheet · data as of
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol OSBC · Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Blend
Is OSBC undervalued?
At 25.19 (close of 5 Nov 2026), OSBC trades 32% below the GLS average fair value of 36.94. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 4 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Old Second Bancorp, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between DDM (4.27) and 10 Cap (84.25). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for OSBC, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 61, growth score 58, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for OSBC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 17.55 | -30% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 29.86 | +19% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 55.62 | +121% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 19.02 | -24% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 18.58 | -26% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 84.25 | +234% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 78.70 | +212% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 4.27 | -83% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 24.63 | -2% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -114.19 | -553% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 29.50 | +17% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter with room to spare. On durability OSBC scores 6.7/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Moat Score tab on the Quote page's Financials view shows which of the four parts hold it back.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.5%, ROE 9.0%, ROA 1.2% - with debt at 0.38 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 13.5%.
The dividend yield is 1.15% with a payout ratio of 13% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Real Estate Other 100% (quarter Q3 FY2019).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 6.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.7 / 10 | ROE | 9.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.38 | ROA | 1.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 13.5% | Payout ratio | 13% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 50: Fair
A Wheel Score of 50 keeps Old Second Bancorp, Inc. under 70, the mark only a stock that passes all 9 Wheel Trade Filters can reach: it fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (329 open interest, 124 a day). The parts: value strong, premium strong, moat good, health strong, red flags weak, option trading weak, stability fair.
Implied volatility is 43% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 329 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 779k shares a day on a market cap of $1.3B, with a beta of 0.77 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (329 open interest, 124 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 32% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 43% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 6.7/10 | |
| Health | Strong | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 67/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 124 contracts a day, 329 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.77, $1.3B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 20 Jan 2027, 76 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
Analysts upgraded OSBC 1 time in the last 30 days with no downgrades; the latest action was a reiterated rating by Piper Sandler on 26 Oct 2026.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to Old Second Bancorp, Inc. by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTBI Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. | 70.71 | 104.51 | +32% | 48Weak | $1.3B |
| PFBC Preferred Bank | 106.87 | 202.95 | +47% | 42Weak | $1.3B |
| MCB Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. | 97.68 | 153.79 | +36% | 45Weak | $1.2B |
| HBT HBT Financial, Inc. | 37.81 | 40.86 | +7% | 35Weak | $1.4B |
| FMBL Farmers & Merchants Bank of Long Beach | 9,850.00 | 9,205.09 | -7% | 19No options | $1.2B |
| FMBH First Mid Bancshares, Inc. | 51.94 | 73.05 | +29% | 47Weak | $1.4B |
| HFWA Heritage Financial Corporation | 29.18 | 48.18 | +39% | 50Fair | $1.2B |
| AMTB Amerant Bancorp Inc. | 30.07 | 49.07 | +39% | 48Weak | $1.2B |
| WTBFB W.T.B. Financial Corporation | 461.18 | 520.63 | +11% | 27No options | $1.2B |
| WABC Westamerica Bancorporation | 61.28 | 63.28 | +3% | 36Weak | $1.4B |
| DCBG Dime Commercial Bancshares, Inc. | 26.29 | 65.88 | +60% | 31No options | $1.2B |
| PEBO Peoples Bancorp Inc. | 39.84 | 56.28 | +29% | 51Fair | $1.4B |
⚖ Compare OSBC with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about OSBC
Is OSBC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 25.19 the stock is 32% below the average fair value of 36.94 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of OSBC and what does it mean?
OSBC scores 50 out of 100 (Fair) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 1. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for OSBC?
36.94 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Old Second Bancorp, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 20 Jan 2027, 76 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does OSBC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 24 listed contracts with 329 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 43% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.