Stock fact sheet · data as of
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Value
Is OSBC undervalued?
At 24.85 (close of 16 Oct 2026), OSBC trades 19% under the GLS average fair value of 30.72. 4 of the 9 models that produced a value land above the price. A discount of this size counts as a positive margin of safety in every GLS screen; whether it is enough depends on the rest of the picture - the health score, the moat and the option premium below.
There is a wide gap between DDM (4.12) and 10 Cap (68.11). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files OSBC under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for OSBC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 16.98 | -32% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 26.74 | +8% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 46.08 | +85% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 15.90 | -36% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 15.25 | -39% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 68.11 | +174% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 63.28 | +155% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 4.12 | -83% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 20.04 | -19% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -114.19 | -560% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 30.00 | +21% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 4.7/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.5%, ROE 9.0%, ROA 1.2% - with debt at 0.38 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 11.2%.
The dividend yield is 1.13% with a payout ratio of 15% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Real Estate Other 100% (quarter Q3 FY2019).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 6.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.7 / 10 | ROE | 9.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.38 | ROA | 1.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 11.2% | Payout ratio | 15% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 76: Good
With a Wheel Score of 76 - the Good band - Old Second Bancorp, Inc. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 20/25, Health 16/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 19/20, Stability 13/20; Moat (7/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 34% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (19 of 20 points). Chain open interest is thin - 356 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 547k shares a day on a market cap of $1.3B, with a beta of 0.77 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 20 / 25 | 19% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.7/10 | |
| Premium | 19 / 20 | implied volatility 34% | |
| Stability | 13 / 20 | 547k shares/day, $1.3B cap, beta 0.77 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. reports earnings on 21 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to Old Second Bancorp, Inc. by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBT HBT Financial, Inc. | 35.37 | 37.22 | +5% | 64Fair | $1.3B |
| PEBO Peoples Bancorp Inc. | 35.79 | 52.53 | +32% | 81Prime | $1.3B |
| FMBH First Mid Bancshares, Inc. | 49.29 | 62.77 | +21% | 72Good | $1.3B |
| PFBC Preferred Bank | 101.99 | 209.94 | +51% | 77Good | $1.2B |
| CTBI Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. | 74.43 | 107.06 | +30% | 80Prime | $1.4B |
| WABC Westamerica Bancorporation | 58.70 | 68.31 | +14% | 70Good | $1.4B |
| FMBL Farmers & Merchants Bank of Long Beach | 9,699.00 | 12,096.29 | +20% | 39No options | $1.2B |
| AGBK AGI Inc | 7.28 | 42.58 | +83% | 39No options | $1.2B |
| TMP Tompkins Financial Corporation | 95.86 | 129.17 | +26% | 72Good | $1.4B |
| WTBFB W.T.B. Financial Corporation | 459.31 | 512.71 | +10% | 39No options | $1.2B |
| DCBG Dime Commercial Bancshares, Inc. | 26.07 | 48.00 | +46% | 39No options | $1.1B |
| AMTB Amerant Bancorp Inc. | 29.03 | 56.58 | +49% | 78Good | $1.1B |
⚖ Compare OSBC with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about OSBC
Is OSBC undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 24.85 the stock trades 19% below the average fair value of 30.72 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of OSBC and what does it mean?
OSBC scores 76 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for OSBC?
30.72 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Old Second Bancorp, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 21 Oct 2026 (after the close), 5 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does OSBC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 76 listed contracts with 356 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 34% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.