Stock fact sheet · data as of
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories · United States · Blend
Is HLMN undervalued?
Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) closed at 7.26 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 7.85 (7.5% below fair value). 4 of the 8 models that produced a number sit above the price, 4 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
There is a wide gap between EPV (2.34) and DCF (14.31). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files HLMN under Blend.
Nine valuation models for HLMN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 14.31 | +97% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 5.44 | -25% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 9.90 | +36% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 4.17 | -43% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 6.80 | -6% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 9.79 | +35% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 10.07 | +39% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 2.34 | -68% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -2.47 | -134% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 13.00 | +79% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Hillman Solutions Corp. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 4.1/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.0%, ROE 3.3%, ROA 1.7% - with debt at 0.67 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.3%.
Hillman Solutions Corp. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Engraving 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 4/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.1 / 10 | ROE | 3.3% |
| Debt / equity | 0.67 | ROA | 1.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.3% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 4 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 73: Good
With a Wheel Score of 73 - the Good band - Hillman Solutions Corp. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 16/25, Health 16/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 16/20; Moat (6/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 59% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 666 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 1.9M shares a day on a market cap of $1.4B, with a beta of 1.42 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 16 / 25 | 8% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 59% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 1.9M shares/day, $1.4B cap, beta 1.42 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
The 11 companies below are the closest to Hillman Solutions Corp. by market cap within the Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMT Kennametal Inc. | 30.99 | 37.77 | +18% | 75Good | $2.4B |
| TKR The Timken Company | 112.32 | 78.67 | -43% | 63Fair | $7.8B |
| TTC The Toro Company | 98.26 | 72.41 | -36% | 56Fair | $9.3B |
| QEPC Q.E.P. Co., Inc. | 55.98 | 134.90 | +59% | 39No options | $167M |
| EML The Eastern Company | 25.04 | 22.51 | -11% | 31No options | $151M |
| SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | 90.29 | 132.49 | +32% | 86Prime | $13.6B |
| LECO Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | 260.24 | 167.87 | -55% | 65Good | $14.2B |
| RBC RBC Bearings Incorporated | 498.54 | 203.15 | -145% | 60Fair | $15.8B |
| SNA Snap-on Incorporated | 363.51 | 303.10 | -20% | 55Fair | $18.8B |
| DMFG Decker Manufacturing Corporation | 57.10 | 206.15 | +72% | 39No options | $50M |
| ILAG Intelligent Living Application Group Inc. | 2.85 | - | - | 20No options | $6M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HLMN
Is HLMN undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 7.26 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 7.85 (7.5% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of HLMN and what does it mean?
HLMN scores 73 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for HLMN?
7.85 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Hillman Solutions Corp. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HLMN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 60 listed contracts with 666 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 59% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.