Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Timken Company (TKR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories · United States · Blend
Is TKR undervalued?
TKR closed at 112.32 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 78.67. Only 3 of the 9 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
There is a wide gap between DDM (20.89) and Graham Growth (150.67). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files TKR under Blend.
Nine valuation models for TKR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 79.89 | -29% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 62.07 | -45% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 150.67 | +34% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 61.22 | -45% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 22.90 | -80% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 149.51 | +33% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 119.53 | +6% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 20.89 | -81% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 41.38 | -63% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -10.54 | -109% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 142.86 | +27% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
The Timken Company scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability TKR scores 6.2/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.4%, ROE 9.1%, ROA 4.3% - with debt at 0.68 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.0%.
The dividend yield is 1.26% with a payout ratio of 38% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Engineered Bearings 64%, Industrial Motion 36% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 5.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.2 / 10 | ROE | 9.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.68 | ROA | 4.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.0% | Payout ratio | 38% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 63: Fair
A Wheel Score of 63 puts The Timken Company in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 18/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 20/20 and Stability 16/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 44% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 4,671 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 603k shares a day on a market cap of $7.8B, with a beta of 1.18; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -43% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 6.2/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 44% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 603k shares/day, $7.8B cap, beta 1.18 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories
The 11 companies below are the closest to The Timken Company by market cap within the Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTC The Toro Company | 98.26 | 72.41 | -36% | 56Fair | $9.3B |
| SWK Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. | 90.29 | 132.49 | +32% | 86Prime | $13.6B |
| LECO Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | 260.24 | 167.87 | -55% | 65Good | $14.2B |
| RBC RBC Bearings Incorporated | 498.54 | 203.15 | -145% | 60Fair | $15.8B |
| SNA Snap-on Incorporated | 363.51 | 303.10 | -20% | 55Fair | $18.8B |
| KMT Kennametal Inc. | 30.99 | 37.77 | +18% | 75Good | $2.4B |
| HLMN Hillman Solutions Corp. | 7.26 | 7.85 | +8% | 73Good | $1.4B |
| QEPC Q.E.P. Co., Inc. | 55.98 | 134.90 | +59% | 39No options | $167M |
| EML The Eastern Company | 25.04 | 22.51 | -11% | 31No options | $151M |
| DMFG Decker Manufacturing Corporation | 57.10 | 206.15 | +72% | 39No options | $50M |
| ILAG Intelligent Living Application Group Inc. | 2.85 | - | - | 20No options | $6M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TKR
Is TKR undervalued right now?
No: at 112.32 the stock trades 43% above the GLS average fair value of 78.67 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of TKR and what does it mean?
TKR scores 63 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for TKR?
78.67 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Timken Company report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does TKR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 424 listed contracts with 4,671 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 44% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.