Stock fact sheet · data as of
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol HTH · Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Blend
Is HTH undervalued?
At 37.68 (close of 5 Nov 2026), HTH trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 41.55 (9.3% below fair value). 9 models produced a value and they split 5 above the price to 4 below. A stock priced at fair value earns about half of the Wheel Score's Value points; the rest of the score comes from health, moat, premium and stability.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 11.77 while Payback Time gives 79.05. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for HTH, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 57, growth score 47, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for HTH
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 14.62 | -61% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 45.24 | +20% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 60.14 | +60% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 20.26 | -46% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 39.63 | +5% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 75.80 | +101% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 79.05 | +110% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 11.77 | -69% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 27.44 | -27% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -216.73 | -675% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 42.00 | +11% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - HTH passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 5.5 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.4%, ROE 7.6%, ROA 1.0% - with debt at 0.43 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 7.9%.
The dividend yield is 2.12% at a payout ratio of 33%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Investment Advisory, Management and Adm… 42%, Investment Advice 25%, Commissions 13% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 5.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.5 / 10 | ROE | 7.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.43 | ROA | 1.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 7.9% | Payout ratio | 33% |
| Institutions | 7 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 37: Weak
HTH scores 37 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (1,464 open interest, 72 a day), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium strong, moat fair, health good, red flags weak, option trading weak, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 35% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 1,464 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 459k shares a day on a market cap of $2.2B, with a beta of 0.87; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (1,464 open interest, 72 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 9% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 35% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 5.5/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 67/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 72 contracts a day, 1,464 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.87, $2.2B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 28 Jan 2027, 84 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today. The shares go ex-dividend on 6 Nov 2026 (0.2200 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to Hilltop Holdings Inc. by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRCE 1st Source Corporation | 89.21 | 109.80 | +19% | 43Weak | $2.1B |
| FCF First Commonwealth Financial Corporation | 21.51 | 25.39 | +15% | 44Weak | $2.2B |
| OFG OFG Bancorp | 51.51 | 60.38 | +15% | 76Good | $2.2B |
| NTB The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited | 55.49 | 117.94 | +53% | 55Fair | $2.2B |
| WAFDP WaFd, Inc. | 14.73 | 33.91 | +57% | 34No options | $2.1B |
| WAFD WaFd, Inc. | 30.13 | 45.47 | +34% | 48Weak | $2.2B |
| BUSEP First Busey Corporation | 25.54 | 32.15 | +21% | 22No options | $2.1B |
| FIISO Financial Institutions, Inc. 8.48% SRB1 PFD B | 105.89 | 74.82 | -42% | 16No options | $2.1B |
| EFSC Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 63.87 | 64.59 | +1% | 36Weak | $2.3B |
| BBAR Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. | 11.18 | 99.28 | +89% | 79Good | $2.3B |
| CHCO City Holding Company | 144.54 | 140.93 | -3% | 35Weak | $2.0B |
| EFSCP Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 16.34 | 33.30 | +51% | 35No options | $2.3B |
⚖ Compare HTH with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HTH
Is HTH undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 37.68 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 41.55 (9.3% below fair value, data as of 5 Nov 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of HTH and what does it mean?
HTH scores 37 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 1. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for HTH?
41.55 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Hilltop Holdings Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Jan 2027, 84 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HTH have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 28 listed contracts with 1,464 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 35% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.