Stock fact sheet · data as of
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Value
Is HTH undervalued?
At 36.77 (close of 16 Oct 2026), HTH trades 47% over the GLS average fair value of 25.00, with 1 of 7 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The 7 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 4.63 while Graham Number gives 48.08. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files HTH under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for HTH
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 14.06 | -62% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 48.08 | +31% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 32.29 | -12% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 4.63 | -87% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 33.12 | -10% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 11.77 | -68% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 31.07 | -16% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -216.73 | -689% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 42.00 | +14% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - HTH passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.3 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.4%, ROE 7.6%, ROA 1.0% - with debt at 0.43 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 2.18% at a payout ratio of 28%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Investment Advisory, Management and Adm… 41%, Investment Advice 24%, Asset Management 11% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 5.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.3 / 10 | ROE | 7.6% |
| Debt / equity | 0.43 | ROA | 1.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -3.0% | Payout ratio | 28% |
| Institutions | 7 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 50: Fair
HTH scores 50 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 19/20, Stability 12/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 34% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (19 of 20 points). Chain open interest is thin - 90 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 243k shares a day on a market cap of $2.1B, with a beta of 0.89; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 12 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -47% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.3/10 | |
| Premium | 19 / 20 | implied volatility 34% | |
| Stability | 12 / 20 | 243k shares/day, $2.1B cap, beta 0.89 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Hilltop Holdings Inc. reports earnings on 22 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to Hilltop Holdings Inc. by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EFSCP Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 15.78 | 48.37 | +67% | 39No options | $2.1B |
| WAFDP WaFd, Inc. | 14.90 | 33.53 | +56% | 39No options | $2.1B |
| WAFD WaFd, Inc. | 28.91 | 40.88 | +29% | 79Good | $2.1B |
| EFSC Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 59.27 | 80.50 | +26% | 82Prime | $2.1B |
| FCF First Commonwealth Financial Corporation | 20.22 | 27.00 | +25% | 82Prime | $2.0B |
| NWBI Northwest Bancshares, Inc. | 14.89 | 13.04 | -14% | 61Fair | $2.2B |
| SRCE 1st Source Corporation | 84.33 | 103.75 | +19% | 75Good | $2.0B |
| OFG OFG Bancorp | 52.13 | 66.55 | +22% | 76Good | $2.2B |
| CHCO City Holding Company | 140.94 | 144.70 | +3% | 62Fair | $2.0B |
| TBBK The Bancorp, Inc. | 48.39 | 151.48 | +68% | 81Prime | $2.0B |
| MBIN Merchants Bancorp | 48.95 | 125.01 | +61% | 68Good | $2.2B |
| MBINM Merchants Bancorp | 24.92 | 94.16 | +74% | 39No options | $2.3B |
⚖ Compare HTH with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HTH
Is HTH undervalued right now?
No: at 36.77 the stock trades 47% above the GLS average fair value of 25.00 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of HTH and what does it mean?
HTH scores 50 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for HTH?
25.00 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Hilltop Holdings Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 22 Oct 2026 (after the close), 6 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HTH have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 90 listed contracts with 90 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 34% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.