Stock fact sheet · data as of
Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics · United States · Blend
Is HUBG undervalued?
Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG) closed at 27.49 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 26.31 (4.5% above fair value). 4 of the 9 models that produced a number sit above the price, 5 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 7.36 while Graham Growth gives 51.29. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files HUBG under Blend.
Nine valuation models for HUBG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 33.89 | +23% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 23.92 | -13% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 51.29 | +87% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 22.42 | -18% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 22.25 | -19% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 31.01 | +13% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 34.66 | +26% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 7.36 | -73% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 9.96 | -64% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -6.74 | -125% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 29.00 | +5% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health HUBG scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.9 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 4.8%, ROE 6.3%, ROA 3.6% - with debt at 0.31 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.2%.
The dividend yield is 1.82% at a payout ratio of 28%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Intermodal 58%, Logistics 42% (quarter Q3 FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.9 / 10 | ROE | 6.3% |
| Debt / equity | 0.31 | ROA | 3.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.2% | Payout ratio | 28% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 65: Good
HUBG scores 65 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 11/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (6/15), the option premium on offer (18/20) and how easily the stock trades (15/20). Moat (6/15) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 70% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (18 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 28,715 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.1M shares a day on a market cap of $1.7B, with a beta of 1.25 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 11 / 25 | -4% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 3.9/10 | |
| Premium | 18 / 20 | implied volatility 70% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 1.1M shares/day, $1.7B cap, beta 1.25 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Hub Group, Inc. reports earnings on 22 Oct 2026 - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Integrated Freight & Logistics
The 12 companies below are the closest to Hub Group, Inc. by market cap within the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBI Pitney Bowes Inc. | 16.75 | 49.57 | +66% | 83Prime | $2.3B |
| CYRX Cryoport, Inc. | 17.07 | - | - | 45Weak | $865M |
| FWRD Forward Air Corporation | 15.84 | 30.44 | +48% | 45Weak | $535M |
| GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | 46.55 | 26.67 | -75% | 59Fair | $5.3B |
| LSTR Landstar System, Inc. | 172.46 | 84.01 | -105% | 51Fair | $5.9B |
| RLGT Radiant Logistics, Inc. | 9.01 | 7.11 | -27% | 47Weak | $423M |
| ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. | 20.36 | 78.91 | +74% | 93Prime | $15.2B |
| FDXF FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. | 110.50 | 76.20 | -45% | 53Fair | $16.5B |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | 143.82 | 67.46 | -113% | 64Fair | $16.8B |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | 235.31 | 142.49 | -65% | 59Fair | $22.1B |
| EXPD Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | 198.64 | 76.74 | -159% | 61Fair | $25.8B |
| PAL Proficient Auto Logistics, Inc. Common Stock | 3.34 | 40.67 | +92% | 45Weak | $94M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HUBG
Is HUBG undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 27.49 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 26.31 (4.5% above fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of HUBG and what does it mean?
HUBG scores 65 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for HUBG?
26.31 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Hub Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 22 Oct 2026, 6 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HUBG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 112 listed contracts with 28,715 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 70% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.