Stock fact sheet · data as of
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics · United States · Blend
Is EXPD undervalued?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) closed at 198.64 on 16 Oct 2026, 159% above the GLS average fair value of 76.74. 9 of the 9 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (20.35) and 10 Cap (187.83). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files EXPD under Blend.
Nine valuation models for EXPD
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 69.68 | -65% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 50.06 | -75% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 104.50 | -47% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 23.89 | -88% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 20.35 | -90% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 187.83 | -5% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 133.89 | -33% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 23.25 | -88% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 77.24 | -61% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 9.41 | -95% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 179.43 | -10% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability EXPD scores 5.8/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 27.8%, ROE 34.5%, ROA 16.6% - with debt at 0.24 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.6%.
The dividend yield is 0.80% with a payout ratio of 23% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Airfreight Services 43%, Customs Brokerage And Other Services 37%, Ocean Freight And Ocean Services 20% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.8 / 10 | ROE | 34.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.24 | ROA | 16.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.6% | Payout ratio | 23% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 61: Fair
A Wheel Score of 61 puts Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 16/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 18/20 and Stability 19/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 33% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (18 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 4,913 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.5M shares a day on a market cap of $25.8B, with a beta of 1.06; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -159% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 5.8/10 | |
| Premium | 18 / 20 | implied volatility 33% | |
| Stability | 19 / 20 | 1.5M shares/day, $25.8B cap, beta 1.06 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Integrated Freight & Logistics
The 12 companies below are the closest to Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. by market cap within the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | 235.31 | 142.49 | -65% | 59Fair | $22.1B |
| CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | 143.82 | 67.46 | -113% | 64Fair | $16.8B |
| FDXF FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. | 110.50 | 76.20 | -45% | 53Fair | $16.5B |
| ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. | 20.36 | 78.91 | +74% | 93Prime | $15.2B |
| FDX FedEx Corporation | 295.54 | 328.40 | +10% | 78Good | $69.9B |
| UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | 95.77 | 104.85 | +9% | 71Good | $81.4B |
| LSTR Landstar System, Inc. | 172.46 | 84.01 | -105% | 51Fair | $5.9B |
| GXO GXO Logistics, Inc. | 46.55 | 26.67 | -75% | 59Fair | $5.3B |
| PBI Pitney Bowes Inc. | 16.75 | 49.57 | +66% | 83Prime | $2.3B |
| HUBG Hub Group, Inc. | 27.49 | 26.31 | -4% | 65Good | $1.7B |
| CYRX Cryoport, Inc. | 17.07 | - | - | 45Weak | $865M |
| FWRD Forward Air Corporation | 15.84 | 30.44 | +48% | 45Weak | $535M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about EXPD
Is EXPD undervalued right now?
No: at 198.64 the stock trades 159% above the GLS average fair value of 76.74 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of EXPD and what does it mean?
EXPD scores 61 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for EXPD?
76.74 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does EXPD have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 254 listed contracts with 4,913 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 33% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.