Stock fact sheet · data as of
Ingredion Incorporated (INGR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods · United States · Defensive
Is INGR undervalued?
Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) closed at 97.27 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 228.28, which puts the price 57% below it. 7 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
The 9 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 48.18 while GLS Growth gives 572.55. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files INGR under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for INGR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 289.56 | +198% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 122.63 | +26% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 171.95 | +77% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 48.18 | -50% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 572.55 | +489% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 288.80 | +197% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 408.49 | +320% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 48.41 | -50% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 103.91 | +7% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -0.4123 | -100% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 109.50 | +13% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - INGR passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 5.5 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 11.9%, ROE 16.8%, ROA 9.2% - with debt at 0.41 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 10.6%.
The dividend yield is 3.38% at a payout ratio of 35%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from E M E A 100% (quarter Q2 FY2021).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.5 / 10 | ROE | 16.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.41 | ROA | 9.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 10.6% | Payout ratio | 35% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 82: Prime
INGR scores 82 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (13/20), the GLS moat (8/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (15/20).
Implied volatility is 35% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (20 of 20 points). Chain open interest is thin - 1,668 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 425k shares a day on a market cap of $6.1B, with a beta of 0.64 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 57% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.5/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 35% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 425k shares/day, $6.1B cap, beta 0.64 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Packaged Foods
The 12 companies below are the closest to Ingredion Incorporated by market cap within the Packaged Foods industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | 19.84 | 26.87 | +26% | 77Good | $5.9B |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | 14.18 | 26.09 | +46% | 45Weak | $6.8B |
| PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | 29.01 | 65.35 | +56% | 82Prime | $6.9B |
| SFD Smithfield Foods, Inc. | 18.30 | 34.73 | +47% | 78Good | $7.2B |
| LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | 54.21 | 39.77 | -36% | 63Fair | $7.5B |
| DAR Darling Ingredients Inc. | 60.87 | 63.96 | +5% | 81Prime | $9.6B |
| POST Post Holdings, Inc. | 77.66 | 263.98 | +71% | 82Prime | $3.4B |
| HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | 20.19 | 16.39 | -23% | 54Fair | $11.1B |
| MICC The Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V. | 18.44 | 21.79 | +15% | 76Good | $11.3B |
| FRPT Freshpet, Inc. | 67.65 | 100.50 | +33% | 80Prime | $3.3B |
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | 45.71 | 73.06 | +37% | 81Prime | $12.3B |
| SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | 121.84 | 80.04 | -52% | 56Fair | $13.0B |
⚖ Compare INGR with 7 of them All Consumer Defensive stocks →
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about INGR
Is INGR undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 97.27 the stock is 57% below the average fair value of 228.28 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of INGR and what does it mean?
INGR scores 82 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for INGR?
228.28 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Ingredion Incorporated report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does INGR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 208 listed contracts with 1,668 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 35% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.