Stock fact sheet · data as of
Post Holdings, Inc. (POST): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods · United States · Value
Is POST undervalued?
At 77.66 (close of 16 Oct 2026), POST trades 71% below the GLS average fair value of 263.98. That average comes from 8 models run on the latest filings, and 7 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Post Holdings, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
The 8 models disagree widely: EPV gives 72.19 while DCF gives 740.37. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files POST under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for POST
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 740.37 | +853% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 99.88 | +29% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 278.84 | +259% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 114.98 | +48% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 119.60 | +54% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 348.18 | +348% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 337.81 | +335% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 72.19 | -7% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -176.08 | -327% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 112.00 | +44% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health POST scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 4.5 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.9%, ROE 8.9%, ROA 2.5% - with debt at 2.05 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 16.2%. Debt of 2.05 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
Post Holdings, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Cereal and Granola 36%, Egg and Egg Products 31%, Pet Food 18% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 2.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.5 / 10 | ROE | 8.9% |
| Debt / equity | 2.05 | ROA | 2.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 16.2% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 82: Prime
POST scores 82 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (7/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (15/20).
Implied volatility is 37% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 2,008 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 572k shares a day on a market cap of $3.4B, with a beta of 0.32 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 71% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.5/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 37% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 572k shares/day, $3.4B cap, beta 0.32 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 19 Nov 2026 (after the close), 34 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Packaged Foods
The 12 companies below are the closest to Post Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Packaged Foods industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRPT Freshpet, Inc. | 67.65 | 100.50 | +33% | 80Prime | $3.3B |
| MZTI The Marzetti Company | 103.19 | 110.34 | +6% | 73Good | $2.8B |
| CENTA Central Garden & Pet Company | 36.05 | 87.97 | +59% | 71Good | $2.3B |
| CENT Central Garden & Pet Company | 41.95 | 93.45 | +55% | 71Good | $2.3B |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | 19.84 | 26.87 | +26% | 77Good | $5.9B |
| INGR Ingredion Incorporated | 97.27 | 228.28 | +57% | 82Prime | $6.1B |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | 14.18 | 26.09 | +46% | 45Weak | $6.8B |
| PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | 29.01 | 65.35 | +56% | 82Prime | $6.9B |
| SFD Smithfield Foods, Inc. | 18.30 | 34.73 | +47% | 78Good | $7.2B |
| NOMD Nomad Foods Limited | 11.49 | 16.68 | +31% | 84Prime | $1.6B |
| LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. | 54.21 | 39.77 | -36% | 63Fair | $7.5B |
| HLF Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. | 14.57 | 47.90 | +70% | 74Good | $1.5B |
⚖ Compare POST with 7 of them All Consumer Defensive stocks →
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about POST
Is POST undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 77.66 the stock is 71% below the average fair value of 263.98 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of POST and what does it mean?
POST scores 82 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for POST?
263.98 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Post Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 19 Nov 2026 (after the close), 34 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does POST have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 230 listed contracts with 2,008 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 37% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.