Stock fact sheet · data as of
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · United States · Defensive
Is KDP undervalued?
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) closed at 34.18 on 16 Oct 2026, 57% above the GLS average fair value of 21.80. 7 of the 9 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (4.05) and DCF (46.93). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files KDP under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for KDP
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 46.93 | +37% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 20.84 | -39% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 24.28 | -29% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 7.96 | -77% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 4.05 | -88% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 38.11 | +12% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 28.88 | -16% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 13.54 | -60% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 11.65 | -66% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -18.13 | -153% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 37.75 | +10% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.3/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 5.0%, ROE 8.1%, ROA 3.7% - with debt at 0.63 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.2%.
The dividend yield is 2.69% at a payout ratio of 91%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from U.S. Refreshment Beverages 40%, JDE Peet's 38%, U.S. Coffee 13% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 16 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.3 / 10 | ROE | 8.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.63 | ROA | 3.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.2% | Payout ratio | 91% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 58: Fair
A Wheel Score of 58 puts Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 20/20 and Stability 20/20; the weakest part is Value (0/25).
Implied volatility is 36% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 72,687 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 19.0M shares a day on a market cap of $46.5B, with a beta of 0.41 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -57% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.3/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 36% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 19.0M shares/day, $46.5B cap, beta 0.41 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. reports earnings on 26 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
The 12 companies below are the closest to Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. by market cap within the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCEP Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC | 109.77 | 80.31 | -37% | 61Fair | $48.7B |
| FMX Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V. | 120.99 | 825.52 | +85% | 80Prime | $41.2B |
| MNST Monster Beverage Corporation | 45.34 | 26.64 | -70% | 66Good | $88.8B |
| KOF Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. de C.V. | 115.67 | 508.81 | +77% | 77Good | $24.3B |
| COKE Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | 204.55 | 243.03 | +16% | 80Prime | $16.1B |
| PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | 129.27 | 104.37 | -24% | 58Fair | $176.6B |
| CELH Celsius Holdings, Inc. | 28.16 | 21.08 | -34% | 58Fair | $7.1B |
| PRMB Primo Brands Corporation | 18.78 | 14.56 | -29% | 59Fair | $6.8B |
| KO The Coca-Cola Company | 92.00 | 47.08 | -95% | 59Fair | $395.8B |
| COCO The Vita Coco Company, Inc. | 57.67 | 54.79 | -5% | 70Good | $3.3B |
| FIZZ National Beverage Corp. | 34.31 | 31.86 | -8% | 61Fair | $3.2B |
| SUJA Suja Life, Inc. | 11.94 | 6.78 | -76% | 14No options | $284M |
⚖ Compare KDP with 7 of them All Consumer Defensive stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about KDP
Is KDP undervalued right now?
No: at 34.18 the stock trades 57% above the GLS average fair value of 21.80 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of KDP and what does it mean?
KDP scores 58 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for KDP?
21.80 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 26 Oct 2026 (before the open), 10 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does KDP have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 356 listed contracts with 72,687 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 36% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.