Stock fact sheet · data as of
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · Japan · ADR · Defensive
Is MFG undervalued?
At 10.22 (close of 16 Oct 2026), MFG trades 99% below the GLS average fair value of 1,012.85. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 6 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 2.75 while Graham Number gives 7,760.82. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files MFG under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for MFG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 10.68 | +5% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 7,760.82 | +75838% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 24.39 | +139% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 9.41 | -8% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 2.75 | -73% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 829.66 | +8018% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 35.82 | +250% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 434.07 | +4147% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 8.00 | -22% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -15,834.24 | -155034% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 10.00 | -2% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health MFG scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 5.5 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.7%, ROE 11.6%, ROA 0.4% - with debt at 5.88 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 5.88 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 1.83% at a payout ratio of 0%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Securities related business 22%, Lending related business 22%, Financial Service, Other 18% (fiscal year FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.5 / 10 | ROE | 11.6% |
| Debt / equity | 5.88 | ROA | 0.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.0% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 88: Prime
MFG scores 88 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (8/15), the option premium on offer (19/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20).
Implied volatility is 63% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (19 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 2,422 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 4.3M shares a day on a market cap of $128.5B, with a beta of 0.38 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 99% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.5/10 | |
| Premium | 19 / 20 | implied volatility 63% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 4.3M shares/day, $128.5B cap, beta 0.38 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 13 Nov 2026 (after the close), 28 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDB HDFC Bank Limited | 23.53 | 953.25 | +98% | 90Prime | $120.7B |
| IBN ICICI Bank Limited | 29.44 | 219.42 | +87% | 45Weak | $105.7B |
| USB U.S. Bancorp | 56.26 | 86.70 | +35% | 90Prime | $87.7B |
| PNC The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | 215.80 | 196.12 | -10% | 61Fair | $86.1B |
| LYG Lloyds Banking Group plc | 5.47 | 8.37 | +35% | 80Prime | $79.3B |
| NU Nu Holdings Ltd. | 14.73 | 22.78 | +35% | 86Prime | $71.2B |
| DB Deutsche Bank AG | 32.86 | 82.93 | +60% | 80Prime | $61.7B |
| TFC Truist Financial Corporation | 45.57 | 84.17 | +46% | 85Prime | $55.7B |
| FITBI Fifth Third Bancorp | 25.36 | 45.99 | +45% | 39No options | $50.5B |
| FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | 50.35 | 64.33 | +22% | 82Prime | $45.7B |
| BBD Banco Bradesco S.A. | 4.03 | 44.33 | +91% | 86Prime | $43.5B |
| BSBR Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. | 5.59 | 22.36 | +75% | 71Good | $41.9B |
⚖ Compare MFG with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MFG
Is MFG undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 10.22 the stock is 99% below the average fair value of 1,012.85 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of MFG and what does it mean?
MFG scores 88 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MFG?
1,012.85 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 13 Nov 2026 (after the close), 28 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MFG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 80 listed contracts with 2,422 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 63% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.