Stock fact sheet · data as of
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol MFG · Financial Services · Banks - Regional · Japan · ADR · Blend
MFG is an American depositary share (ADR): the US listing of Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., whose own shares trade on its home exchange. It trades in dollars during US hours; currency moves and the home country's rules also affect it, and the depositary bank charges a small yearly fee.
Is MFG undervalued?
At 9.80 (close of 5 Nov 2026), MFG trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 9.23 (6.2% above fair value). 9 models produced a value and they split 4 above the price to 5 below. A stock priced at fair value earns about half of the Wheel Score's Value points; the rest of the score comes from health, moat, premium and stability.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 2.76 while Graham Growth gives 24.33. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for MFG, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 48, growth score 46, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for MFG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 10.83 | +11% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 9.80 | +0% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 24.33 | +148% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 9.39 | -4% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 2.76 | -72% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 10.08 | +3% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 5.09 | -48% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 2.82 | -71% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 7.97 | -19% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -104.19 | -1163% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 10.00 | +2% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health MFG scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is low at 3.6 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.7%, ROE 11.6%, ROA 0.4% - with debt at 5.88 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 5.88 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 1.96% at a payout ratio of 0%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Securities related business 22%, Lending related business 22%, Financial Service, Other 18% (fiscal year FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.6 / 10 | ROE | 11.6% |
| Debt / equity | 5.88 | ROA | 0.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.0% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 37: Weak
MFG scores 37 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (424 open interest, 68 a day); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 6% above our fair value, and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium strong, moat fair, health good, red flags strong, option trading weak, stability strong. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 63% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% top of the sweet spot. It still passes the 25-80% filter, but the Wheel Score rewards it less because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 424 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 4.0M shares a day on a market cap of $118.5B, with a beta of 0.38 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that strong.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (424 open interest, 68 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 6% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 6% above fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 63% | |
| Moat | Fair | moat 3.6/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 90/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 68 contracts a day, 424 open interest | |
| Stability | Strong | beta 0.38, $118.5B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. reports earnings on 13 Nov 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDB HDFC Bank Limited | 24.33 | 59.81 | +59% | 91Prime | $124.8B |
| IBN ICICI Bank Limited | 31.26 | 40.56 | +23% | 46Weak | $112.2B |
| USB U.S. Bancorp | 61.03 | 60.45 | -1% | 48Weak | $95.1B |
| PNC The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | 233.45 | 161.88 | -44% | 40Weak | $92.7B |
| LYG Lloyds Banking Group plc | 5.27 | 9.92 | +47% | 47Weak | $77.2B |
| DB Deutsche Bank AG | 36.73 | 76.89 | +52% | 51Fair | $68.1B |
| TFC Truist Financial Corporation | 50.87 | 92.14 | +45% | 77Good | $61.0B |
| NU Nu Holdings Ltd. | 11.99 | 22.62 | +47% | 53Fair | $57.9B |
| FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | 54.72 | 69.09 | +21% | 80Good | $49.6B |
| KB KB Financial Group Inc. | 114.98 | 238.31 | +52% | 49Weak | $40.6B |
| BSBR Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. | 4.76 | 8.85 | +46% | 37Weak | $35.6B |
| HBANL Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | 24.69 | 21.93 | -13% | 23No options | $34.1B |
⚖ Compare MFG with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MFG
Is MFG undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 9.80 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 9.23 (6.2% above fair value, data as of 5 Nov 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of MFG and what does it mean?
MFG scores 37 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 1, 3. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for MFG?
9.23 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 13 Nov 2026 (after the close), 8 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MFG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 18 listed contracts with 424 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 63% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.
Is MFG an ADR?
Yes. MFG is an American depositary share (ADR): the US listing of Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., whose own shares trade on its home exchange. It trades in dollars during US hours; currency moves and the home country's rules also affect it, and the depositary bank charges a small yearly fee.