Stock fact sheet · data as of
HDFC Bank Limited (HDB): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · India · ADR · High Growth
Is HDB undervalued?
HDB has a margin of safety of 98%: the stock closed at 23.53 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 953.25. 8 of the 9 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
The 9 models disagree widely: EPV gives 18.42 while 10 Cap gives 6,775.26. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files HDB under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for HDB
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 62.58 | +166% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 674.11 | +2765% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 70.20 | +198% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 28.85 | +23% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 101.50 | +331% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 6,775.26 | +28694% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 164.13 | +598% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 684.21 | +2808% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 18.42 | -22% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -7,620.33 | -32486% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health HDB scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 6.6 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.9%, ROE 13.9%, ROA 1.7% - with debt at 1.00 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 2.13% at a payout ratio of 0%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Retail Banking 95%, Treasury Services 6% (quarter Q4 FY2012).
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 9/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 6.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.6 / 10 | ROE | 13.9% |
| Debt / equity | 1.00 | ROA | 1.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.0% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 9 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 90: Prime
HDB scores 90 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (10/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20).
Implied volatility is 35% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (20 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 39,778 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 10.9M shares a day on a market cap of $120.7B, with a beta of 0.42 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 98% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 10 / 15 | moat 6.6/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 35% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 10.9M shares/day, $120.7B cap, beta 0.42 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
HDFC Bank Limited reports earnings on 16 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to HDFC Bank Limited by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFG Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. | 10.22 | 1,012.85 | +99% | 88Prime | $128.5B |
| IBN ICICI Bank Limited | 29.44 | 219.42 | +87% | 45Weak | $105.7B |
| USB U.S. Bancorp | 56.26 | 86.70 | +35% | 90Prime | $87.7B |
| PNC The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | 215.80 | 196.12 | -10% | 61Fair | $86.1B |
| LYG Lloyds Banking Group plc | 5.47 | 8.37 | +35% | 80Prime | $79.3B |
| NU Nu Holdings Ltd. | 14.73 | 22.78 | +35% | 86Prime | $71.2B |
| DB Deutsche Bank AG | 32.86 | 82.93 | +60% | 80Prime | $61.7B |
| TFC Truist Financial Corporation | 45.57 | 84.17 | +46% | 85Prime | $55.7B |
| FITBI Fifth Third Bancorp | 25.36 | 45.99 | +45% | 39No options | $50.5B |
| FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | 50.35 | 64.33 | +22% | 82Prime | $45.7B |
| BBD Banco Bradesco S.A. | 4.03 | 44.33 | +91% | 86Prime | $43.5B |
| BSBR Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. | 5.59 | 22.36 | +75% | 71Good | $41.9B |
⚖ Compare HDB with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about HDB
Is HDB undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 23.53 the stock is 98% below the average fair value of 953.25 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of HDB and what does it mean?
HDB scores 90 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for HDB?
953.25 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does HDFC Bank Limited report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 16 Oct 2026 (before the open), 0 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does HDB have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 102 listed contracts with 39,778 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 35% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.