Stock fact sheet · data as of
MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Utilities · Regulated Electric · United States · Defensive
Is MGEE undervalued?
MGEE closed at 71.28 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 46.85. Only 1 of the 7 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
The 7 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 25.32 while Graham Growth gives 82.81. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files MGEE under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for MGEE
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 50.70 | -29% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 58.96 | -17% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 82.81 | +16% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 25.32 | -64% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 37.19 | -48% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 28.45 | -60% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 44.51 | -38% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -43.00 | -160% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 76.00 | +7% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - MGEE passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 6.0 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.1%, ROE 10.4%, ROA 4.3% - with debt at 0.72 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 2.71% at a payout ratio of 47%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Electric 75%, Gas 18%, Non Regulated Energy 7% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 6.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.0 / 10 | ROE | 10.4% |
| Debt / equity | 0.72 | ROA | 4.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -6.1% | Payout ratio | 47% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 50: Fair
MGEE scores 50 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 11/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 10/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 45% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 98 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 113k shares a day on a market cap of $2.7B, with a beta of 0.69 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 10 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -52% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 6.0/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 45% | |
| Stability | 10 / 20 | 113k shares/day, $2.7B cap, beta 0.69 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Electric
The 12 companies below are the closest to MGE Energy, Inc. by market cap within the Regulated Electric industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELPC Companhia Paranaense de Energia | 13.68 | 37.33 | +63% | 39No options | $2.5B |
| DTB DTE Energy Company 2020 Series | 14.79 | 32.49 | +54% | 39No options | $3.1B |
| DTG DTE Energy Company 2021 Series | 15.28 | 32.68 | +53% | 39No options | $3.2B |
| WELPP Wisconsin Electric Power Company PFD 3.60% | 63.00 | 384.83 | +84% | 39No options | $2.1B |
| AILLI Ameren Illinois Company | 79.51 | 58.15 | -37% | 31No options | $2.0B |
| AILLM Ameren Illinois Company | 78.60 | 57.56 | -37% | 32No options | $2.0B |
| WELPM Wisconsin Electric Power Company | 106.15 | 596.23 | +82% | 39No options | $1.9B |
| AILLN Ameren Illinois Company | 76.49 | 133.62 | +43% | 39No options | $1.9B |
| CEPU Central Puerto S.A. | 12.97 | 4,922.39 | +100% | 80Prime | $1.9B |
| AILIM Ameren Illinois Company | 75.75 | 148.34 | +49% | 39No options | $1.9B |
| AILIN Ameren Illinois Company | 70.35 | 49.86 | -41% | 31No options | $1.8B |
| PAM Pampa Energía S.A. | 80.75 | 117.69 | +31% | 76Good | $4.3B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MGEE
Is MGEE undervalued right now?
No: at 71.28 the stock trades 52% above the GLS average fair value of 46.85 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of MGEE and what does it mean?
MGEE scores 50 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MGEE?
46.85 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does MGE Energy, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MGEE have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 70 listed contracts with 98 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 45% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.