Stock fact sheet · data as of
MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol MGEE · Utilities · Regulated Electric · United States · Blend
Is MGEE undervalued?
MGEE closed at 77.59 on 5 Nov 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 45.16. Only 1 of the 8 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the "below fair value" Wheel Trade Filter keeps names like this under 70.
The 8 models disagree widely: 10 Cap gives 17.40 while Graham Growth gives 87.63. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for MGEE, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 34, growth score 51, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for MGEE
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 53.15 | -32% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 61.39 | -21% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 87.63 | +13% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 26.65 | -66% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 39.16 | -50% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 17.40 | -78% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 28.45 | -63% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 47.48 | -39% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -43.00 | -155% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 76.00 | -2% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - MGEE passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 6.2 out of 10: a record that is solid on some of the four parts the score weighs (returns on capital, pricing power, lasting growth, balance sheet) and weaker on others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.1%, ROE 10.4%, ROA 4.3% - with debt at 0.72 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is 2.49% at a payout ratio of 49%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Electric 75%, Gas 18%, Non Regulated Energy 7% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 6.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.2 / 10 | ROE | 10.4% |
| Debt / equity | 0.72 | ROA | 4.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -3.6% | Payout ratio | 49% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 34: Weak
MGEE scores 34 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (45 open interest, 36 a day); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 72% above our fair value, and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium strong, moat good, health good, red flags fair, option trading weak, stability fair. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 36% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 45 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 256k shares a day on a market cap of $2.9B, with a beta of 0.68 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (45 open interest, 36 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 72% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 72% above fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 36% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 6.2/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Red Flags | Fair | Red Flags score 75/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 36 contracts a day, 45 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.68, $2.9B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for MGEE in the nightly calendar. The shares go ex-dividend on 1 Dec 2026 (0.5083 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Regulated Electric
The 12 companies below are the closest to MGE Energy, Inc. by market cap within the Regulated Electric industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DTB DTE Energy Company 2020 Series | 15.16 | 32.27 | +53% | 34No options | $3.2B |
| DTG DTE Energy Company 2021 Series | 15.36 | 32.35 | +53% | 33No options | $3.2B |
| PAM Pampa Energía S.A. | 64.84 | 137.06 | +53% | 49Weak | $3.5B |
| WELPM Wisconsin Electric Power Company | 103.90 | 616.45 | +83% | 32No options | $2.1B |
| WELPP Wisconsin Electric Power Company PFD 3.60% | 62.00 | 391.26 | +84% | 28No options | $2.1B |
| ELPC Companhia Paranaense de Energia | 10.67 | 18.32 | +42% | 34No options | $2.0B |
| NWE Northwestern Energy Group Inc | 82.00 | 33.17 | -147% | 33Weak | $5.0B |
| CIG Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais | 1.82 | 4.36 | +58% | 44Weak | $5.2B |
| POR Portland General Electric Company | 46.00 | 27.26 | -69% | 27Weak | $5.5B |
| CEPU Central Puerto S.A. | 10.13 | 44.04 | +77% | 46Weak | $1.5B |
| HE Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. | 8.50 | 12.01 | +29% | 41Weak | $1.5B |
| ENIC Enel Chile S.A. | 4.39 | 5.18 | +15% | 35Weak | $6.1B |
Scan the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MGEE
Is MGEE undervalued right now?
No: at 77.59 the stock trades 72% above the GLS average fair value of 45.16 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of MGEE and what does it mean?
MGEE scores 34 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 1, 3. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for MGEE?
45.16 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does MGE Energy, Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for MGEE in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does MGEE have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 32 listed contracts with 45 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 36% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.