Stock fact sheet · data as of
MGM Resorts International (MGM): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Gambling, Resorts & Casinos · United States · Value
Is MGM undervalued?
MGM Resorts International (MGM) closed at 29.48 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 56.64, which puts the price 48% below it. 4 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (5.59) and 10 Cap (155.56). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files MGM under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for MGM
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 114.21 | +287% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 19.33 | -34% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 43.08 | +46% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 14.90 | -49% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 5.59 | -81% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 155.56 | +428% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 81.82 | +178% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 18.65 | -37% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -134.21 | -555% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 47.57 | +61% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
MGM Resorts International scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 3.4/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.4%, ROE 8.5%, ROA 0.5% - with debt at 23.11 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 22.5%. Debt of 23.11 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
MGM Resorts International pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Casino 54%, Occupancy 19%, Food And Beverage 18% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 11 Sep 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 0.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.4 / 10 | ROE | 8.5% |
| Debt / equity | 23.11 | ROA | 0.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 22.5% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 87: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 87, MGM Resorts International sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 18/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 19/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 42% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 274,816 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 4.6M shares a day on a market cap of $7.4B, with a beta of 1.35 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 48% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.4/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 42% | |
| Stability | 19 / 20 | 4.6M shares/day, $7.4B cap, beta 1.35 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
MGM Resorts International reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
The 12 companies below are the closest to MGM Resorts International by market cap within the Gambling, Resorts & Casinos industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WYNN Wynn Resorts, Limited | 73.73 | 169.18 | +56% | 84Prime | $7.6B |
| LNWO Light & Wonder, Inc. | 81.71 | 103.62 | +21% | 39No options | $6.3B |
| CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | 29.25 | 96.50 | +70% | 45Weak | $6.0B |
| DKNG DraftKings Inc. | 19.31 | 63.10 | +69% | 45Weak | $9.6B |
| CHDN Churchill Downs Incorporated | 82.15 | 109.00 | +25% | 85Prime | $5.7B |
| SGHC Super Group (SGHC) Limited | 11.12 | 13.44 | +17% | 79Good | $5.6B |
| MTN Vail Resorts, Inc. | 152.96 | 112.59 | -36% | 56Fair | $5.5B |
| RSI Rush Street Interactive, Inc. | 18.49 | 15.97 | -16% | 61Fair | $5.2B |
| BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation | 70.97 | 385.85 | +82% | 85Prime | $5.2B |
| FLUT Flutter Entertainment plc | 76.18 | 133.91 | +43% | 45Weak | $13.2B |
| VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | 106.23 | 42.56 | -150% | 43Weak | $3.7B |
| RRR Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | 49.77 | 91.51 | +46% | 80Prime | $2.9B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MGM
Is MGM undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 29.48 the stock is 48% below the average fair value of 56.64 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of MGM and what does it mean?
MGM scores 87 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MGM?
56.64 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does MGM Resorts International report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (after the close), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MGM have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 600 listed contracts with 274,816 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 42% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.