Stock fact sheet · data as of
Altria Group, Inc. (MO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Tobacco · United States · High Yield Income
Is MO undervalued?
Altria Group, Inc. (MO) closed at 73.84 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 71.02 (4.0% above fair value). 4 of the 8 models that produced a number sit above the price, 4 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
The 8 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 19.62 while 10 Cap gives 129.26. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files MO under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.
Nine valuation models for MO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 98.39 | +33% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | 78.00 | +6% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 19.62 | -73% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 23.75 | -68% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 129.26 | +75% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 103.06 | +40% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 63.12 | -15% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 52.98 | -28% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -19.72 | -127% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 69.71 | -6% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health MO scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 5.7 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 31.3%, ROE -198.4%, ROA 19.8% - with debt at -7.34 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.7%.
The dividend yield is high at 5.81% (payout ratio 86%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Smokeable Products 88%, Smokeless Products 12%, Other Segments 0% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 31.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.7 / 10 | ROE | -198.4% |
| Debt / equity | -7.34 | ROA | 19.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.7% | Payout ratio | 86% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 72: Good
MO scores 72 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 11/25), Piotroski health (18/20), the GLS moat (9/15), the option premium on offer (15/20) and how easily the stock trades (20/20). Value (11/25) is the part holding the score back.
Implied volatility is 30% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (15 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 313,697 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 10.9M shares a day on a market cap of $123.3B, with a beta of 0.46 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 11 / 25 | -4% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 5.7/10 | |
| Premium | 15 / 20 | implied volatility 30% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 10.9M shares/day, $123.3B cap, beta 0.46 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Altria Group, Inc. reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Tobacco
The 12 companies below are the closest to Altria Group, Inc. by market cap within the Tobacco industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTI British American Tobacco p.l.c. | 58.00 | 65.28 | +11% | 67Good | $124.7B |
| PM Philip Morris International Inc. | 205.58 | 125.11 | -64% | 66Good | $320.4B |
| RLX RLX Technology Inc. | 1.71 | 6.12 | +72% | 75Good | $2.1B |
| AIIR Air Global PLC Ordinary Shares | 7.50 | 42.51 | +82% | 39No options | $1.2B |
| TPB Turning Point Brands, Inc. | 57.70 | 55.27 | -4% | 61Fair | $1.2B |
| UVV Universal Corporation | 40.68 | 54.96 | +26% | 69Good | $1.0B |
| ISPR Ispire Technology Inc. | 1.44 | 379.00 | +100% | 44Weak | $83M |
| PYYX Pyxus International, Inc. | 2.74 | 28.57 | +90% | 39No options | $67M |
| RYM RYTHM, Inc. | 18.18 | - | - | 25No options | $39M |
| CHUC Charlie's Holdings, Inc. | 0.1000 | - | - | 30No options | $28M |
| GNLN Greenlane Holdings, Inc. | 2.24 | 501.97 | +100% | 37No options | $2M |
| LIFD LFTD Partners Inc. | 0.1000 | 1.11 | +91% | 39No options | $1M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MO
Is MO undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 73.84 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 71.02 (4.0% above fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of MO and what does it mean?
MO scores 72 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MO?
71.02 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Altria Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 804 listed contracts with 313,697 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 30% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.