Stock fact sheet · data as of
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Tobacco · United States · Defensive
Is PM undervalued?
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) closed at 205.58 on 16 Oct 2026, 64% above the GLS average fair value of 125.11. 8 of the 8 models that produced a number value the shares below the current price. A gap this wide usually means the market is paying for growth or a story the trailing numbers do not show yet; the models work from filed results, not forecasts, so they are conservative by design.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (34.67) and 10 Cap (204.83). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files PM under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for PM
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 173.53 | -16% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | 187.07 | -9% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 66.09 | -68% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 34.67 | -83% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 204.83 | -0% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 168.94 | -18% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 88.43 | -57% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 77.31 | -62% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -33.91 | -116% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 212.17 | +3% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Philip Morris International Inc. scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability PM scores 5.7/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 29.2%, ROE -113.5%, ROA 16.4% - with debt at -4.89 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.0%.
The dividend yield is 2.92% at a payout ratio of 83%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Combustible Products 59%, Reduced Risk Products 42% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 10/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.7 / 10 | ROE | -113.5% |
| Debt / equity | -4.89 | ROA | 16.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.0% | Payout ratio | 83% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 10 / 10 |
Wheel Score 66: Good
With a Wheel Score of 66 - the Good band - Philip Morris International Inc. falls just short of the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 18/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20; Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 36% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 153,700 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 4.3M shares a day on a market cap of $320.4B, with a beta of 0.36 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -64% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 5.7/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 36% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 4.3M shares/day, $320.4B cap, beta 0.36 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Philip Morris International Inc. reports earnings on 21 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Tobacco
The 12 companies below are the closest to Philip Morris International Inc. by market cap within the Tobacco industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTI British American Tobacco p.l.c. | 58.00 | 65.28 | +11% | 67Good | $124.7B |
| MO Altria Group, Inc. | 73.84 | 71.02 | -4% | 72Good | $123.3B |
| RLX RLX Technology Inc. | 1.71 | 6.12 | +72% | 75Good | $2.1B |
| AIIR Air Global PLC Ordinary Shares | 7.50 | 42.51 | +82% | 39No options | $1.2B |
| TPB Turning Point Brands, Inc. | 57.70 | 55.27 | -4% | 61Fair | $1.2B |
| UVV Universal Corporation | 40.68 | 54.96 | +26% | 69Good | $1.0B |
| ISPR Ispire Technology Inc. | 1.44 | 379.00 | +100% | 44Weak | $83M |
| PYYX Pyxus International, Inc. | 2.74 | 28.57 | +90% | 39No options | $67M |
| RYM RYTHM, Inc. | 18.18 | - | - | 25No options | $39M |
| CHUC Charlie's Holdings, Inc. | 0.1000 | - | - | 30No options | $28M |
| GNLN Greenlane Holdings, Inc. | 2.24 | 501.97 | +100% | 37No options | $2M |
| LIFD LFTD Partners Inc. | 0.1000 | 1.11 | +91% | 39No options | $1M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about PM
Is PM undervalued right now?
No: at 205.58 the stock trades 64% above the GLS average fair value of 125.11 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of PM and what does it mean?
PM scores 66 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for PM?
125.11 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Philip Morris International Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 21 Oct 2026 (before the open), 5 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does PM have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 153,700 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 36% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.