Stock fact sheet · data as of
Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Tobacco · United States · High Growth
Is TPB undervalued?
TPB closed at 57.70 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 55.27 - 4.4% above fair value, which our screens read as "fairly priced". 2 of 9 models are above the current price. There is no discount to lean on here, so the margin of safety is not the reason to look at the stock.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 4.64 while GLS Growth gives 137.13. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files TPB under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for TPB
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 43.86 | -24% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 33.01 | -43% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 128.13 | +122% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 56.00 | -3% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 137.13 | +138% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 30.73 | -47% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 39.08 | -32% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 4.64 | -92% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 24.89 | -57% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 1.27 | -98% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 111.50 | +93% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - TPB passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 5.9 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 8.8%, ROE 16.4%, ROA 7.6% - with debt at 0.87 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.7%.
The dividend yield is 0.55% with a payout ratio of 14% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Stokers Products 100% (quarter Q3 FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 8.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.9 / 10 | ROE | 16.4% |
| Debt / equity | 0.87 | ROA | 7.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.7% | Payout ratio | 14% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 61: Fair
TPB scores 61 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 11/25, Health 11/20, Moat 9/15, Premium 19/20, Stability 12/20. Value (11/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 65% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (19 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 10,724 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 401k shares a day on a market cap of $1.2B, with a beta of 0.97; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 12 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 11 / 25 | -4% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 5.9/10 | |
| Premium | 19 / 20 | implied volatility 65% | |
| Stability | 12 / 20 | 401k shares/day, $1.2B cap, beta 0.97 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Tobacco
The 12 companies below are the closest to Turning Point Brands, Inc. by market cap within the Tobacco industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIIR Air Global PLC Ordinary Shares | 7.50 | 42.51 | +82% | 39No options | $1.2B |
| UVV Universal Corporation | 40.68 | 54.96 | +26% | 69Good | $1.0B |
| RLX RLX Technology Inc. | 1.71 | 6.12 | +72% | 75Good | $2.1B |
| ISPR Ispire Technology Inc. | 1.44 | 379.00 | +100% | 44Weak | $83M |
| PYYX Pyxus International, Inc. | 2.74 | 28.57 | +90% | 39No options | $67M |
| RYM RYTHM, Inc. | 18.18 | - | - | 25No options | $39M |
| CHUC Charlie's Holdings, Inc. | 0.1000 | - | - | 30No options | $28M |
| MO Altria Group, Inc. | 73.84 | 71.02 | -4% | 72Good | $123.3B |
| BTI British American Tobacco p.l.c. | 58.00 | 65.28 | +11% | 67Good | $124.7B |
| PM Philip Morris International Inc. | 205.58 | 125.11 | -64% | 66Good | $320.4B |
| GNLN Greenlane Holdings, Inc. | 2.24 | 501.97 | +100% | 37No options | $2M |
| LIFD LFTD Partners Inc. | 0.1000 | 1.11 | +91% | 39No options | $1M |
⚖ Compare TPB with 7 of them All Consumer Defensive stocks →
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TPB
Is TPB undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 57.70 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 55.27 (4.4% above fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of TPB and what does it mean?
TPB scores 61 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for TPB?
55.27 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Turning Point Brands, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (before the open), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does TPB have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 306 listed contracts with 10,724 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 65% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.