Stock fact sheet · data as of
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol MSBI · Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Value
Is MSBI undervalued?
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) closed at 33.44 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 38.17, so the price sits 12% below it. 4 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (8.07) and 10 Cap (89.91). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, MSBI is clearly cheaper than it is fast-growing, so the nightly engine files it under Value (value score 57, growth score 12, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for MSBI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 39.50 | +18% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 39.80 | +19% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 8.63 | -74% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 8.07 | -76% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 89.91 | +169% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 69.85 | +109% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 18.98 | -43% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 30.64 | -8% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -216.56 | -748% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 35.33 | +6% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 2.8/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -13.1%, ROE -22.0%, ROA -1.9% - with debt at 0.67 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 11.1%.
The dividend yield is 3.86% at a payout ratio of 67%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Asset Management 44%, Interchange Revenues 23%, Nonsufficient Fund Fees 14% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 6/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | -13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.8 / 10 | ROE | -22.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.67 | ROA | -1.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 11.1% | Payout ratio | 67% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 6 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 41: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 41 Midland States Bancorp, Inc. sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (158 open interest, 158 a day); and filter 8, big enough - market cap $696M (under $1.0B); Option trading (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 48% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 158 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 163k shares a day on a market cap of $696M, with a beta of 0.64 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (158 open interest, 158 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Fails | market cap $696M (under $1.0B) |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Fair | 12% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 48% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 2.8/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 100/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 158 contracts a day, 158 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 0.64, $696M company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 28 Jan 2027, 84 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today. The shares go ex-dividend on 13 Nov 2026 (0.3300 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to Midland States Bancorp, Inc. by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSBIP Midland States Bancorp, Inc. | 25.04 | 34.91 | +28% | 31No options | $695M |
| HIFS Hingham Institution for Savings | 320.17 | 380.09 | +16% | 28No options | $698M |
| ACNB ACNB Corporation | 67.51 | 58.80 | -15% | 35Weak | $687M |
| RRBI Red River Bancshares, Inc. | 107.68 | 108.90 | +1% | 25No options | $709M |
| CUBB Customers Bancorp, Inc 5.375% S | 20.76 | 229.32 | +91% | 24No options | $709M |
| CCB Coastal Financial Corporation | 44.45 | 302.53 | +85% | 49Weak | $680M |
| BHB Bar Harbor Bankshares | 42.51 | 39.72 | -7% | 31Weak | $713M |
| BCAL California BanCorp | 22.19 | 40.61 | +45% | 33No options | $713M |
| CBNK Capital Bancorp, Inc. | 43.78 | 44.89 | +2% | 20Weak | $715M |
| TCBX Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. | 40.49 | 87.54 | +54% | 47Weak | $674M |
| WCCB West Coast Community Bancorp | 63.35 | 121.40 | +48% | 36No options | $667M |
| AROW Arrow Financial Corporation | 39.54 | 37.39 | -6% | 27Weak | $733M |
⚖ Compare MSBI with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MSBI
Is MSBI undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 33.44 the stock trades 12% below the average fair value of 38.17 (data as of 5 Nov 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of MSBI and what does it mean?
MSBI scores 41 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 1, 8. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for MSBI?
38.17 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Midland States Bancorp, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Jan 2027, 84 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MSBI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 42 listed contracts with 158 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 48% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.