Stock fact sheet · data as of
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Banks - Regional · United States · Defensive
Is MSBI undervalued?
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) closed at 32.30 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 42.70, so the price sits 24% below it. 3 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A margin of safety between 10% and 30% is where most of the Sunday Scan candidates come from.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (5.98) and 10 Cap (125.46). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files MSBI under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for MSBI
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 35.24 | +9% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 29.19 | -10% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 6.25 | -81% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 5.98 | -82% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 125.46 | +288% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 97.81 | +203% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 18.98 | -41% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 22.68 | -30% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -217.09 | -772% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 34.00 | +5% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 3.0/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -13.1%, ROE -22.0%, ROA -1.9% - with debt at 0.67 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 17.4%.
The dividend yield is 3.99% at a payout ratio of 85%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Asset Management 46%, Interchange Revenues 21%, Nonsufficient Fund Fees 13% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 6/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | -13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.0 / 10 | ROE | -22.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.67 | ROA | -1.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 17.4% | Payout ratio | 85% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 6 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 73: Good
With a Wheel Score of 73 - the Good band - Midland States Bancorp, Inc. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 23/25, Health 18/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 8/20; Moat (5/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 45% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 392 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 154k shares a day on a market cap of $670M, with a beta of 0.64 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 8 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 23 / 25 | 24% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.0/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 45% | |
| Stability | 8 / 20 | 154k shares/day, $670M cap, beta 0.64 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. reports earnings on 22 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Banks - Regional
The 12 companies below are the closest to Midland States Bancorp, Inc. by market cap within the Banks - Regional industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSBIP Midland States Bancorp, Inc. | 25.19 | 37.86 | +33% | 39No options | $669M |
| CARE Carter Bankshares, Inc. | 30.31 | 45.65 | +34% | 74Good | $672M |
| PFIS Peoples Financial Services Corp. | 67.58 | 93.27 | +28% | 39No options | $677M |
| THVB Thomasville Bancshares, Inc. | 104.48 | 189.45 | +45% | 39No options | $662M |
| SUPV Grupo Supervielle S.A. | 7.01 | 3.42 | -105% | 40Weak | $661M |
| RRBI Red River Bancshares, Inc. | 100.15 | 103.80 | +4% | 39No options | $659M |
| AROW Arrow Financial Corporation | 36.80 | 45.19 | +19% | 70Good | $682M |
| CCB Coastal Financial Corporation | 42.97 | 297.73 | +86% | 45Weak | $657M |
| TCBX Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. | 41.20 | 103.49 | +60% | 73Good | $686M |
| BCAL California BanCorp | 21.71 | 39.91 | +46% | 39No options | $698M |
| ACNB ACNB Corporation | 63.18 | 62.20 | -2% | 67Good | $643M |
| CBNK Capital Bancorp, Inc. | 39.43 | 54.92 | +28% | 76Good | $642M |
⚖ Compare MSBI with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about MSBI
Is MSBI undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 32.30 the stock trades 24% below the average fair value of 42.70 (data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of MSBI and what does it mean?
MSBI scores 73 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for MSBI?
42.70 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Midland States Bancorp, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 22 Oct 2026 (after the close), 6 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does MSBI have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 94 listed contracts with 392 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 45% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.