Stock fact sheet · data as of
National HealthCare Corporation (NHC): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Medical - Care Facilities · United States · High Growth
Is NHC undervalued?
National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) closed at 245.53 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 259.14 (5.3% below fair value). 4 of the 9 models that produced a number sit above the price, 5 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
There is a wide gap between DDM (38.55) and GLS Growth (549.82). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files NHC under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for NHC
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 156.49 | -36% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 120.50 | -51% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 513.72 | +109% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 224.53 | -9% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 549.82 | +124% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 257.36 | +5% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 371.53 | +51% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 38.55 | -84% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 99.79 | -59% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -0.2378 | -100% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
National HealthCare Corporation scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 7.8/10 puts NHC among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 10.4%, ROE 11.2%, ROA 7.9% - with debt at 0.08 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.8%.
The dividend yield is 1.07% with a payout ratio of 28% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Workers Compensation Revenue 71%, Professional Liability Insurance 30% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 4/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 10.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.8 / 10 | ROE | 11.2% |
| Debt / equity | 0.08 | ROA | 7.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.8% | Payout ratio | 28% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 4 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 75: Good
With a Wheel Score of 75 - the Good band - National HealthCare Corporation clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 15/25, Health 18/20, Moat 12/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 10/20; Stability (10/20) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 36% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 174 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 96k shares a day on a market cap of $3.8B, with a beta of 0.61 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 10 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 15 / 25 | 5% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 12 / 15 | moat 7.8/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 36% | |
| Stability | 10 / 20 | 96k shares/day, $3.8B cap, beta 0.61 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 6 Nov 2026, 21 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Medical - Care Facilities
The 12 companies below are the closest to National HealthCare Corporation by market cap within the Medical - Care Facilities industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPCH Option Care Health, Inc. | 31.22 | 36.30 | +14% | 70Good | $4.7B |
| LFST LifeStance Health Group, Inc. | 12.37 | 8.21 | -51% | 63Fair | $4.7B |
| CON Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. | 39.15 | 28.17 | -39% | 66Good | $5.0B |
| ACHC Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. | 31.04 | 16.57 | -87% | 45Weak | $2.9B |
| AVAH Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. | 12.64 | 25.89 | +51% | 77Good | $2.8B |
| GRDN Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 39.68 | 29.13 | -36% | 58Fair | $2.5B |
| BKD Brookdale Senior Living Inc. | 10.09 | 8.23 | -23% | 45Weak | $2.4B |
| MD Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. | 27.76 | 34.92 | +21% | 78Good | $2.3B |
| HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. | 29.38 | 55.91 | +47% | 45Weak | $6.6B |
| CHE Chemed Corporation | 515.44 | 334.59 | -54% | 58Fair | $6.7B |
| ADUS Addus HomeCare Corporation | 116.49 | 115.55 | -1% | 67Good | $2.2B |
| PACS PACS Group, Inc. | 44.98 | 56.37 | +20% | 82Prime | $7.1B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NHC
Is NHC undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 245.53 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 259.14 (5.3% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of NHC and what does it mean?
NHC scores 75 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NHC?
259.14 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does National HealthCare Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 6 Nov 2026, 21 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NHC have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 230 listed contracts with 174 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 36% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.