Stock fact sheet · data as of
Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol NTRS · Financial Services · Asset Management · United States · Blend
Is NTRS undervalued?
At 178.02 (close of 5 Nov 2026), NTRS trades 41% below the GLS average fair value of 304.08. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 5 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Northern Trust Corporation the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between DDM (48.26) and GLS Growth (816.08). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for NTRS, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 53, growth score 46, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for NTRS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 389.32 | +119% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 148.38 | -17% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 446.06 | +151% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 171.44 | -4% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 816.08 | +358% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 255.57 | +44% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 313.45 | +76% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 48.26 | -73% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 148.11 | -17% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -554.30 | -411% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 186.00 | +4% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Northern Trust Corporation scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter with room to spare. On durability NTRS scores 7.2/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Moat Score tab on the Quote page's Financials view shows which of the four parts hold it back.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.9%, ROE 13.4%, ROA 1.0% - with debt at 1.27 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.5%.
The dividend yield is 1.84% at a payout ratio of 27%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Corporate and Institutional Service 58%, Wealth Management 42% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 2/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 30 Oct 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 5.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.2 / 10 | ROE | 13.4% |
| Debt / equity | 1.27 | ROA | 1.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.5% | Payout ratio | 27% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 2 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 80: Good
With a Wheel Score of 80 - the Good band - Northern Trust Corporation passes all 9 Wheel Trade Filters. How it ranks: value strong, premium fair, moat good, health strong, red flags strong, option trading weak, stability good. Option trading (weak) is the part keeping it out of the Prime band.
Implied volatility is 26% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. Chain open interest is 6,981 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.0M shares a day on a market cap of $32.2B, with a beta of 1.22 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that good.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 41% below fair value | |
| Premium | Fair | implied volatility 26% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 7.2/10 | |
| Health | Strong | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 100/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 802 contracts a day, 6,981 open interest | |
| Stability | Good | beta 1.22, $32.2B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 21 Jan 2027, 77 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today. The shares go ex-dividend on 4 Dec 2026 (0.8800 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Asset Management
The 12 companies below are the closest to Northern Trust Corporation by market cap within the Asset Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJF Raymond James Financial, Inc. | 168.69 | 294.65 | +43% | 81Good | $32.4B |
| NTRSO Northern Trust Corporation | 17.77 | 117.23 | +85% | 38No options | $31.9B |
| JUEZX JPMorgan U.S. Equity Fund Class R2 | 27.99 | 125.21 | +78% | 29No options | $31.7B |
| JMUEX JPMorgan U.S. Equity Fund | 28.75 | 766.25 | +96% | 29No options | $31.7B |
| JUESX JPMorgan U.S. Equity Fund Class I | 28.66 | 128.70 | +78% | 29No options | $31.7B |
| FFTHX Fidelity Freedom 2035 Fund | 18.79 | 16.33 | -15% | 14No options | $34.0B |
| FFFEX Fidelity Freedom 2030 Fund | 20.52 | 0.7953 | -2480% | 15No options | $34.1B |
| FFEGX Fidelity Freedom Index 2030 Fund | 24.16 | - | - | 15No options | $28.6B |
| VIPSX Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares | 11.37 | 1.17 | -871% | 15No options | $27.0B |
| PARDX T. Rowe Price Retirement 2040 Fund | 37.52 | 11.41 | -229% | 11No options | $26.5B |
| SLV iShares Silver Trust | 47.16 | - | - | 37Weak | $26.5B |
| APHKX Artisan International Value Fund Institutional Class | 62.92 | 46.89 | -34% | 15No options | $25.9B |
⚖ Compare NTRS with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the top 10 stocks that pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NTRS
Is NTRS undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 178.02 the stock is 41% below the average fair value of 304.08 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of NTRS and what does it mean?
NTRS scores 80 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for NTRS?
304.08 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Northern Trust Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 21 Jan 2027, 77 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NTRS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 136 listed contracts with 6,981 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 26% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.