Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is NVO undervalued?

At 39.22 (close of 16 Oct 2026), NVO trades 77% below the GLS average fair value of 173.67. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 8 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Novo Nordisk A/S the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.

There is a wide gap between Lynch (25.78) and Payback Time (391.18). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.

The nightly engine files NVO under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.

Nine valuation models for NVO

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Novo Nordisk A/S scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 8.4/10 puts NVO among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.

Returns on capital are high - ROIC 31.5%, ROE 52.8%, ROA 18.9% - with debt at 0.67 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.2%.

The dividend yield is high at 4.48% (payout ratio 45%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.

Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 26 Aug 2026.

Wheel Score 91: Prime

With a Wheel Score of 91, Novo Nordisk A/S sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 13/20, Moat 13/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.

Implied volatility is 43% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 1,547,006 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.

Volume runs at 14.6M shares a day on a market cap of $174.9B, with a beta of 0.35 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Drug Manufacturers - General

The 12 companies below are the closest to Novo Nordisk A/S by market cap within the Drug Manufacturers - General industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

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