Stock fact sheet · data as of
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General · United Kingdom · ADR · High Growth
Is AZN undervalued?
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) closed at 166.68 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 184.44 (9.6% below fair value). 4 of the 9 models that produced a number sit above the price, 5 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
There is a wide gap between DDM (46.82) and DCF (457.82). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files AZN under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for AZN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 457.82 | +175% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 70.23 | -58% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 219.65 | +32% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 83.79 | -50% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 346.94 | +108% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 156.68 | -6% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 203.44 | +22% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 46.82 | -72% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 74.58 | -55% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -23.62 | -114% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 186.67 | +12% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
AstraZeneca PLC scores 8 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability AZN scores 7.1/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 13.1%, ROE 21.1%, ROA 9.0% - with debt at 0.61 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.3%.
The dividend yield is 1.91% at a payout ratio of 47%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from CVRM 17%, Rare Disease 12%, Farxiga 11% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 7/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.1 / 10 | ROE | 21.1% |
| Debt / equity | 0.61 | ROA | 9.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.3% | Payout ratio | 47% |
| Institutions | 7 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 85: Prime
With a Wheel Score of 85, AstraZeneca PLC sits in the Prime band - price, quality and premium all line up for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 17/25, Health 18/20, Moat 11/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20. A high score is a ranking, not a signal: it says nothing about timing, the earnings date or your position size.
Implied volatility is 39% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 121,701 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 4.2M shares a day on a market cap of $258.5B, with a beta of 0.21 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 17 / 25 | 10% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 11 / 15 | moat 7.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 39% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 4.2M shares/day, $258.5B cap, beta 0.21 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
AstraZeneca PLC reports earnings on 30 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Drug Manufacturers - General
The 12 companies below are the closest to AstraZeneca PLC by market cap within the Drug Manufacturers - General industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN Amgen Inc. | 434.03 | 330.55 | -31% | 65Good | $234.7B |
| NVS Novartis AG | 150.38 | 144.89 | -4% | 68Good | $285.8B |
| GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | 157.37 | 138.25 | -14% | 45Weak | $195.1B |
| MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | 145.35 | 69.51 | -109% | 59Fair | $358.6B |
| NVO Novo Nordisk A/S | 39.22 | 173.67 | +77% | 91Prime | $174.9B |
| PFE Pfizer Inc. | 29.21 | 19.78 | -48% | 58Fair | $166.5B |
| ABBV AbbVie Inc. | 283.38 | 103.06 | -175% | 65Good | $500.8B |
| BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | 60.57 | 76.74 | +21% | 86Prime | $123.7B |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | 253.28 | 139.73 | -81% | 54Fair | $610.4B |
| GSK GSK plc | 49.02 | 43.72 | -12% | 70Good | $98.2B |
| SNY Sanofi | 39.77 | 63.49 | +37% | 86Prime | $97.4B |
| LLY Eli Lilly and Company | 1,251.61 | 720.47 | -74% | 71Good | $1.18T |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AZN
Is AZN undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 166.68 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 184.44 (9.6% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of AZN and what does it mean?
AZN scores 85 out of 100 (Prime). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AZN?
184.44 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does AstraZeneca PLC report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 30 Oct 2026 (before the open), 14 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AZN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 121,701 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 39% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.