Stock fact sheet · data as of
Novartis AG (NVS): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General · Switzerland · ADR · Defensive
Is NVS undervalued?
NVS closed at 150.38 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 144.89 - 3.8% above fair value, which our screens read as "fairly priced". 5 of 9 models are above the current price. There is no discount to lean on here, so the margin of safety is not the reason to look at the stock.
There is a wide gap between Graham Number (57.16) and DCF (251.98). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files NVS under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for NVS
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 251.98 | +68% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 57.16 | -62% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 183.53 | +22% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 65.77 | -56% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 155.92 | +4% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 203.08 | +35% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 247.07 | +64% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 66.05 | -56% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 73.41 | -51% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -20.29 | -113% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 146.00 | -3% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Novartis AG scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 7.9/10 puts NVS among the more durable businesses we track: over ten years the metrics the score watches (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, ROIC) have mostly moved the right way, year after year.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 16.9%, ROE 30.5%, ROA 12.2% - with debt at 0.80 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 5.6%.
The dividend yield is 2.97% at a payout ratio of 68%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Top 20 products 78%, Rest of portfolio 22% (quarter Q2 FY2023).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 16.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.9 / 10 | ROE | 30.5% |
| Debt / equity | 0.80 | ROA | 12.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.6% | Payout ratio | 68% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 68: Good
With a Wheel Score of 68 - the Good band - Novartis AG falls just short of the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 11/25, Health 13/20, Moat 12/15, Premium 12/20, Stability 20/20; Value (11/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 27% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (12 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 124,971 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.1M shares a day on a market cap of $285.8B, with a beta of 0.42 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 11 / 25 | -4% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 12 / 15 | moat 7.9/10 | |
| Premium | 12 / 20 | implied volatility 27% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.1M shares/day, $285.8B cap, beta 0.42 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Novartis AG reports earnings on 27 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Drug Manufacturers - General
The 12 companies below are the closest to Novartis AG by market cap within the Drug Manufacturers - General industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZN AstraZeneca PLC | 166.68 | 184.44 | +10% | 85Prime | $258.5B |
| AMGN Amgen Inc. | 434.03 | 330.55 | -31% | 65Good | $234.7B |
| MRK Merck & Co., Inc. | 145.35 | 69.51 | -109% | 59Fair | $358.6B |
| GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | 157.37 | 138.25 | -14% | 45Weak | $195.1B |
| NVO Novo Nordisk A/S | 39.22 | 173.67 | +77% | 91Prime | $174.9B |
| PFE Pfizer Inc. | 29.21 | 19.78 | -48% | 58Fair | $166.5B |
| ABBV AbbVie Inc. | 283.38 | 103.06 | -175% | 65Good | $500.8B |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | 253.28 | 139.73 | -81% | 54Fair | $610.4B |
| BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | 60.57 | 76.74 | +21% | 86Prime | $123.7B |
| GSK GSK plc | 49.02 | 43.72 | -12% | 70Good | $98.2B |
| SNY Sanofi | 39.77 | 63.49 | +37% | 86Prime | $97.4B |
| LLY Eli Lilly and Company | 1,251.61 | 720.47 | -74% | 71Good | $1.18T |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NVS
Is NVS undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 150.38 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 144.89 (3.8% above fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of NVS and what does it mean?
NVS scores 68 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NVS?
144.89 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Novartis AG report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 27 Oct 2026 (before the open), 11 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NVS have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 556 listed contracts with 124,971 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 27% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.