Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is OLLI undervalued?

OLLI closed at 95.56 on 16 Oct 2026, 12% below the GLS average fair value of 109.02 from 8 models (4 of them above the price). That is a moderate margin of safety: the stock passes the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan, and the Wheel Score gives it 18 of the 25 Value points.

The 8 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 39.68 while GLS Growth gives 278.69. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files OLLI under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.

Nine valuation models for OLLI

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

On financial health OLLI scores 7/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 8.8 out of 10, built from ten years of revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, share count and returns on capital scored for consistency - a high reading that points to a durable business.

Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 9.3%, ROE 12.7%, ROA 8.1% - with debt at 0.36 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 3.9%.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.

Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 85: Prime

OLLI scores 85 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Prime band (80 and above), which fewer than one stock in twenty reaches on any night. The score blends five things a wheel trader checks before selling a cash-secured put: the margin of safety (Value, 18/25), Piotroski health (16/20), the GLS moat (13/15), the option premium on offer (20/20) and how easily the stock trades (19/20).

Implied volatility is 45% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 38,200 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 2.4M shares a day on a market cap of $5.7B, with a beta of 0.50 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 19 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 8 Dec 2026, 53 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Discount Stores

The 8 companies below are the closest to Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Discount Stores industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

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