Stock fact sheet · data as of
Walmart Inc. (WMT): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores · United States · Blend
Is WMT undervalued?
At 116.16 (close of 16 Oct 2026), WMT trades 123% over the GLS average fair value of 52.04, with 0 of 9 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The 9 models disagree widely: DDM gives 14.38 while DCF gives 107.81. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files WMT under Blend.
Nine valuation models for WMT
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 107.81 | -7% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 27.77 | -76% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 77.34 | -33% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 27.75 | -76% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 60.56 | -48% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 72.97 | -37% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 48.97 | -58% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 14.38 | -88% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 30.84 | -73% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -11.76 | -110% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 128.84 | +11% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - WMT passes 6 of the nine Piotroski tests, which passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 7.2 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 13.1%, ROE 22.0%, ROA 7.7% - with debt at 0.67 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.5%.
The dividend yield is 0.84% with a payout ratio of 35% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Walmart U S 67%, Walmart International 19%, Sams Club 14% (quarter Q2 FY2027).
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 26 Aug 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.2 / 10 | ROE | 22.0% |
| Debt / equity | 0.67 | ROA | 7.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.5% | Payout ratio | 35% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 61: Fair
WMT scores 61 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 13/20, Moat 11/15, Premium 16/20, Stability 20/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 31% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (16 of 20 points). The option chain is deep: 1,251,695 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 25.9M shares a day on a market cap of $924.4B, with a beta of 0.58 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -123% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 11 / 15 | moat 7.2/10 | |
| Premium | 16 / 20 | implied volatility 31% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 25.9M shares/day, $924.4B cap, beta 0.58 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 19 Nov 2026 (before the open), 34 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium. The next ex-dividend date is 11 Dec 2026 (0.2475 per share).
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Discount Stores
The 8 companies below are the closest to Walmart Inc. by market cap within the Discount Stores industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | 978.01 | 341.91 | -186% | 55Fair | $433.4B |
| TGT Target Corporation | 155.30 | 138.33 | -12% | 71Good | $70.5B |
| DG Dollar General Corporation | 133.90 | 150.39 | +11% | 85Prime | $29.5B |
| DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. | 124.41 | 101.71 | -22% | 69Good | $23.3B |
| BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | 103.27 | 79.89 | -29% | 65Good | $13.0B |
| TBBB BBB Foods Inc. | 56.36 | 417.91 | +87% | 45Weak | $6.8B |
| OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | 95.56 | 109.02 | +12% | 85Prime | $5.7B |
| PSMT PriceSmart, Inc. | 169.19 | 103.78 | -63% | 57Fair | $5.2B |
⚖ Compare WMT with 7 of them All Consumer Defensive stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about WMT
Is WMT undervalued right now?
No: at 116.16 the stock trades 123% above the GLS average fair value of 52.04 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of WMT and what does it mean?
WMT scores 61 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for WMT?
52.04 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Walmart Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 19 Nov 2026 (before the open), 34 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does WMT have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 1,251,695 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 31% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.