Stock fact sheet · data as of
Target Corporation (TGT): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores · United States · Value
Is TGT undervalued?
Target Corporation (TGT) closed at 155.30 on 16 Oct 2026, 12% above the GLS average fair value of 138.33. Only 2 of the 9 models that produced a number value the shares above the current price. The margin of safety is negative, so the stock fails the "below fair value" rule of the Sunday Scan; a premium of this size is common for companies whose growth the models are conservative about.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (34.30) and 10 Cap (311.16). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files TGT under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for TGT
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 119.81 | -23% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 92.41 | -40% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 147.40 | -5% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 34.30 | -78% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 116.68 | -25% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 311.16 | +100% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 248.42 | +60% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 67.39 | -57% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 107.39 | -31% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -51.34 | -133% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 166.95 | +8% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Target Corporation scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. On durability TGT scores 5.3/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 10.2%, ROE 22.9%, ROA 6.2% - with debt at 1.26 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.5%.
The dividend yield is 2.95% at a payout ratio of 47%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Food and Beverage 23%, Beauty and Household Essentials 17%, Apparel and Accessories 15% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 1/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 10.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.3 / 10 | ROE | 22.9% |
| Debt / equity | 1.26 | ROA | 6.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.5% | Payout ratio | 47% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 1 / 10 |
Wheel Score 71: Good
With a Wheel Score of 71 - the Good band - Target Corporation clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 7/25, Health 16/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 20/20; Value (7/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 36% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 344,238 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 2.6M shares a day on a market cap of $70.5B, with a beta of 0.98; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 20 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 7 / 25 | -12% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.3/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 36% | |
| Stability | 20 / 20 | 2.6M shares/day, $70.5B cap, beta 0.98 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 18 Nov 2026 (before the open), 33 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium. The shares go ex-dividend on 10 Nov 2026 (1.16 per share), so a covered call sold before then carries a small early-assignment risk around that date.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Discount Stores
The 8 companies below are the closest to Target Corporation by market cap within the Discount Stores industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DG Dollar General Corporation | 133.90 | 150.39 | +11% | 85Prime | $29.5B |
| DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. | 124.41 | 101.71 | -22% | 69Good | $23.3B |
| BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | 103.27 | 79.89 | -29% | 65Good | $13.0B |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | 978.01 | 341.91 | -186% | 55Fair | $433.4B |
| TBBB BBB Foods Inc. | 56.36 | 417.91 | +87% | 45Weak | $6.8B |
| OLLI Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | 95.56 | 109.02 | +12% | 85Prime | $5.7B |
| WMT Walmart Inc. | 116.16 | 52.04 | -123% | 61Fair | $924.4B |
| PSMT PriceSmart, Inc. | 169.19 | 103.78 | -63% | 57Fair | $5.2B |
⚖ Compare TGT with 7 of them All Consumer Defensive stocks →
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TGT
Is TGT undervalued right now?
No: at 155.30 the stock trades 12% above the GLS average fair value of 138.33 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of TGT and what does it mean?
TGT scores 71 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for TGT?
138.33 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Target Corporation report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 18 Nov 2026 (before the open), 33 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does TGT have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 1,000 listed contracts with 344,238 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 36% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.