Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is ORIO undervalued?

At 0.8914 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ORIO trades 92% below the GLS average fair value of 11.25. That average comes from 1 models run on the latest filings, and 1 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Orion Digital Corp. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.

The average is built from just 1 models (10 Cap) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.

The nightly engine files ORIO under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for ORIO

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Orion Digital Corp. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 1.9/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.

Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -5.4%, ROE -11.8%, ROA -4.9% - with debt at 1.17 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 44.7%.

Orion Digital Corp. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.

Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 45: Weak

With a Wheel Score of 45 Orion Digital Corp. sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 25/25, Health 13/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 5/20, Stability 0/20 - show where: Stability (0/20) scores lowest.

Implied volatility is 200%, far above the range the wheel strategy is built for. The premium looks generous; the Wheel Score gives it only 5 of 20 Premium points because moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is thin - 1,905 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.

Volume runs at 31k shares a day on a market cap of $21M, with a beta of 2.88 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 0 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (before the open), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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