Xunlei Limited (XNET): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is XNET undervalued?

At 4.89 (close of 16 Oct 2026), XNET trades 96% below the GLS average fair value of 132.34. That average comes from 2 models run on the latest filings, and 2 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Xunlei Limited the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.

The average is built from just 2 models (DCF, 10 Cap) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.

The nightly engine files XNET under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.

Nine valuation models for XNET

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Xunlei Limited scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. On durability XNET scores 6.5/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.

Returns on capital are high - ROIC 72.4%, ROE 76.5%, ROA 64.4% - with debt at 0.06 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 42.8%.

Xunlei Limited pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Live streaming revenue 51%, Subscription revenue 49% (fiscal year FY2023).

Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 45: Weak

With a Wheel Score of 45 Xunlei Limited sits in the Weak band, capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. The parts - Value 25/25, Health 9/20, Moat 10/15, Premium 19/20, Stability 8/20 - show where: Stability (8/20) scores lowest.

Implied volatility is 63% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (19 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 13,900 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.

Volume runs at 245k shares a day on a market cap of $62M, with a beta of 1.04; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 8 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 12 Nov 2026 (before the open), 27 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

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