Stock fact sheet · data as of
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Dealerships · United States · Value
Is PAG undervalued?
PAG closed at 194.79 on 16 Oct 2026, which is 23% above the GLS average fair value of 157.80 from 9 models. 7 of them value the shares below today's price. Our screens read that as "no margin of safety": the stock is not a value candidate at this price, whatever the quality numbers say.
The 9 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 27.28 while 10 Cap gives 307.30. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files PAG under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for PAG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 138.85 | -29% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 168.45 | -14% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 286.85 | +47% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 86.23 | -56% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 27.28 | -86% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 307.30 | +58% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 164.18 | -16% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 82.99 | -57% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 158.05 | -19% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -100.58 | -152% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 205.00 | +5% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - PAG passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 5.4 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.5%, ROE 16.8%, ROA 5.1% - with debt at 1.59 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4.6%.
The dividend yield is 2.90% at a payout ratio of 39%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Retail Automotive 86%, Retail Commercial Truck 11%, Other 3% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 4/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 6.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.4 / 10 | ROE | 16.8% |
| Debt / equity | 1.59 | ROA | 5.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.6% | Payout ratio | 39% |
| Institutions | 4 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 58: Fair
PAG scores 58 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 3/25, Health 11/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 16/20. Value (3/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 37% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 24,357 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 439k shares a day on a market cap of $12.8B, with a beta of 0.91; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 16 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 3 / 25 | -23% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.4/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 37% | |
| Stability | 16 / 20 | 439k shares/day, $12.8B cap, beta 0.91 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Auto - Dealerships
The 12 companies below are the closest to Penske Automotive Group, Inc. by market cap within the Auto - Dealerships industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALTB Alpine Auto Brokers Inc. | 10.00 | 0.0102 | -97609% | 17No options | $10.0B |
| KMX CarMax, Inc. | 52.62 | 67.30 | +22% | 81Prime | $7.5B |
| RUSHB Rush Enterprises, Inc. | 56.62 | 86.44 | +34% | 39No options | $6.7B |
| LAD Lithia Motors, Inc. | 295.31 | 571.63 | +48% | 45Weak | $6.5B |
| AN AutoNation, Inc. | 159.80 | 295.09 | +46% | 75Good | $5.3B |
| RUSHA Rush Enterprises, Inc. | 43.78 | 72.26 | +39% | 88Prime | $5.1B |
| OPLN OPENLANE, Inc. | 36.98 | 47.45 | +22% | 77Good | $4.5B |
| VVV Valvoline Inc. | 30.39 | 21.92 | -39% | 54Fair | $3.9B |
| ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. | 169.87 | 478.77 | +65% | 77Good | $3.0B |
| GPI Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | 239.80 | 323.14 | +26% | 77Good | $2.9B |
| CVNA Carvana Co. | 60.59 | 56.99 | -6% | 55Fair | $66.5B |
| BGSI Boyd Group Services Inc. | 81.65 | 64.45 | -27% | 29No options | $2.3B |
Screen the whole market the same way
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about PAG
Is PAG undervalued right now?
No: at 194.79 the stock trades 23% above the GLS average fair value of 157.80 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of PAG and what does it mean?
PAG scores 58 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for PAG?
157.80 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Penske Automotive Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does PAG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 272 listed contracts with 24,357 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 37% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.