Stock fact sheet · data as of
Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · Real Estate - Services · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is RFL undervalued?
RFL closed at 1.43 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 1.04. Only 0 of the 1 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (DCF); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files RFL under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for RFL
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 1.04 | -27% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 0.8001 | -44% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: RFL passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.7 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -32.1%, ROE -32.3%, ROA -26.7% - with debt at 0.01 times equity and negative free cash flow.
Rafael Holdings, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Real Estate 100% (quarter Q4 FY2023).
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | -32.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.7 / 10 | ROE | -32.3% |
| Debt / equity | 0.01 | ROA | -26.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -43.7% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 22: Weak
RFL scores 22 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50). Value 0/25, Health 9/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 5/20, Stability 6/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 168%, far above the range the wheel strategy is built for. The premium looks generous; the Wheel Score gives it only 5 of 20 Premium points because moves of that size can blow through any strike. Chain open interest is 10,703 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 48k shares a day on a market cap of $73M, with a beta of 0.35 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 6 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -37% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 1.7/10 | |
| Premium | 5 / 20 | implied volatility 168% | |
| Stability | 6 / 20 | 48k shares/day, $73M cap, beta 0.35 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Rafael Holdings, Inc. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Real Estate - Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to Rafael Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Real Estate - Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASPS Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A. | 5.59 | 12.60 | +56% | 39No options | $64M |
| OJOC Ojai Oil Company | 326.00 | 208.44 | -56% | 14No options | $91M |
| STHO Star Holdings | 8.01 | 12.75 | +37% | 66Good | $97M |
| CPTP Capital Properties, Inc. | 14.68 | 7.73 | -90% | 23No options | $97M |
| CNXX CONX Corp. | 5.56 | 21.62 | +74% | 39No options | $105M |
| DOUG Douglas Elliman Inc. | 1.49 | 6.52 | +77% | 51Fair | $135M |
| CHCI Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 17.28 | 48.66 | +64% | 39No options | $174M |
| TPRP Tower Properties Company | 29,000.00 | 43,759.51 | +34% | 39No options | $174M |
| AZLCZ Aztec Land and Cattle Company, Limited | 2,800.00 | 390.58 | -617% | 16No options | $255M |
| ARL American Realty Investors, Inc. | 16.77 | 13.94 | -20% | 24No options | $271M |
| SEG Seaport Entertainment Group Inc. | 21.69 | - | - | 43Weak | $278M |
| RMR The RMR Group Inc. | 18.12 | 50.01 | +64% | 64Fair | $291M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about RFL
Is RFL undervalued right now?
No: at 1.43 the stock trades 37% above the GLS average fair value of 1.04 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of RFL and what does it mean?
RFL scores 22 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for RFL?
1.04 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Rafael Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026, 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does RFL have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 30 listed contracts with 10,703 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 168% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.