Stock fact sheet · data as of
First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc (TRAX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Healthcare · Biotechnology · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is TRAX undervalued?
TRAX closed at 34.13 on 16 Oct 2026, more than 30% above the GLS average fair value of 6.37. Only 0 of the 1 models that produced a value sit above the price. By our models the shares are priced well beyond what the filed earnings, cash flow and book value support; the Sunday Scan drops names like this at the "below fair value" rule.
The average is built from just 1 models (DCF) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files TRAX under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for TRAX
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 6.37 | -81% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 7.65 | -78% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 68.80 | +102% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc scores only 0 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 2.7/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -55.1%, ROE -57.8%, ROA -50.2% - with debt at 0.05 times equity and negative free cash flow.
First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 0 / 9 | ROIC | -55.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.7 / 10 | ROE | -57.8% |
| Debt / equity | 0.05 | ROA | -50.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -5.3% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 24: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 24 First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc sits in the Weak band. The parts - Value 0/25, Health 0/20, Moat 4/15, Premium 11/20, Stability 8/20 - show where: Value (0/25) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 95% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (11 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 1,557 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 982k shares a day on a market cap of $1.2B, with a beta of 3.37 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 8 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -435% margin of safety | |
| Health | 0 / 20 | Piotroski 0/9 | |
| Moat | 4 / 15 | moat 2.7/10 | |
| Premium | 11 / 20 | implied volatility 95% | |
| Stability | 8 / 20 | 982k shares/day, $1.2B cap, beta 3.37 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 11 Nov 2026, 26 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Biotechnology
The 12 companies below are the closest to First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc by market cap within the Biotechnology industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRTS Alpha Tau Medical Ltd | 13.16 | - | - | 45Weak | $1.2B |
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| LBRX LB Pharmaceuticals Inc Common Stock | 36.69 | 9.67 | -279% | 38Weak | $1.2B |
| BCAX Bicara Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock | 17.62 | 1.60 | -1000% | 32Weak | $1.2B |
| GPCR Structure Therapeutics Inc. | 22.19 | 13.18 | -68% | 30Weak | $1.3B |
| DMRA Damora Therapeutics, Inc. | 18.74 | 189.26 | +90% | 39No options | $1.2B |
| GHRS GH Research PLC | 18.81 | 3.99 | -372% | 30Weak | $1.3B |
| TSHA Taysha Gene Therapies, Inc. | 3.51 | 0.5789 | -506% | 30Weak | $1.1B |
| NBTX Nanobiotix S.A. | 22.23 | - | - | 40Weak | $1.1B |
| ORIC ORIC Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 12.77 | 0.3488 | -3561% | 25Weak | $1.3B |
| INBX Inhibrx Biosciences Inc. | 90.50 | 0.7387 | -12152% | 25Weak | $1.3B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about TRAX
Is TRAX undervalued right now?
No: at 34.13 the stock trades 435% above the GLS average fair value of 6.37 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of TRAX and what does it mean?
TRAX scores 24 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for TRAX?
6.37 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 11 Nov 2026, 26 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does TRAX have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 138 listed contracts with 1,557 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 95% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.