T. Rowe Price Target Retirement 2040 Fund (TRHRX): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is TRHRX undervalued?

T. Rowe Price Target Retirement 2040 Fund (TRHRX) closed at 19.20 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 3 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 7,860.98, which puts the price 100% below it. 2 of the 3 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.

Only 3 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, 10 Cap, DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.

TRHRX looks like a fund, note or preferred share rather than an operating company, so the nightly engine files it under Fund / Note: the valuation models are not built for it, and its Wheel Score is capped at 45.

Nine valuation models for TRHRX

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

On financial health TRHRX scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. There is no GLS Moat score for TRHRX: funds, notes and second share lines get none, and so does a company with fewer than two years of accounts on file. The Moat part of the Wheel Score is zero.

Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.4%, ROE 13.7%, ROA 3.5% - with debt at 1.53 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 4858.9%.

The dividend yield is high at 5.58% (payout ratio 57%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.

Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 30: No options

TRHRX has no listed options in the nightly snapshot, so there is nothing to sell and the stock cannot be wheeled however good the business. It fails the first Wheel Trade Filter (options that actually trade), so the score stays under 70 and is shown as "No options" (30 here). The valuation and quality numbers still apply to owning the shares outright.

Volume runs at - a day on a market cap of $421M, with a beta of 1.03; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

No upcoming earnings date is recorded for TRHRX in the nightly calendar.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in Asset Management

The 12 companies below are the closest to T. Rowe Price Target Retirement 2040 Fund by market cap within the Asset Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

⚖ Compare TRHRX with 7 of them   All Financial Services stocks →