Stock fact sheet · data as of
United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Asset Management · United States · Value
Is UNG undervalued?
At 11.22 (close of 16 Oct 2026), UNG trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 12.17 (7.8% below fair value). 8 models produced a value and they split 4 above the price to 4 below. A stock priced at fair value earns about half of the Wheel Score's Value points; the rest of the score comes from health, moat, premium and stability.
The 8 models disagree widely: Payback Time gives 3.29 while Graham Growth gives 27.57. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files UNG under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for UNG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 12.87 | +15% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 19.40 | +73% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 27.57 | +146% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 6.84 | -39% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 5.00 | -55% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 3.43 | -69% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 3.29 | -71% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 18.99 | +69% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 9.21 | -18% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: UNG passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.1 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.2%, ROE 6.2%, ROA 5.9% - with debt at 0.00 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.5%.
United States Natural Gas Fund LP pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 2/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 6.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.1 / 10 | ROE | 6.2% |
| Debt / equity | 0.00 | ROA | 5.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.5% | Payout ratio | 1% |
| Institutions | 2 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 61: Fair
UNG scores 61 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 16/25, Health 9/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 13/20. Moat (3/15) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 54% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. The option chain is deep: 498,577 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 39.6M shares a day on a market cap of $500M, with a beta of 1.70 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 16 / 25 | 8% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 2.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 54% | |
| Stability | 13 / 20 | 39.6M shares/day, $500M cap, beta 1.70 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for UNG in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Asset Management
The 12 companies below are the closest to United States Natural Gas Fund LP by market cap within the Asset Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about UNG
Is UNG undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 11.22 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 12.17 (7.8% below fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of UNG and what does it mean?
UNG scores 61 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for UNG?
12.17 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does United States Natural Gas Fund LP report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for UNG in our calendar as of 16 Oct 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does UNG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 768 listed contracts with 498,577 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 54% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.