Stock fact sheet · data as of
United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol UNG · Financial Services · Asset Management · United States · Fund / Note
Is UNG undervalued?
At 9.27 (close of 5 Nov 2026), UNG trades 24% under the GLS average fair value of 12.17. 4 of the 8 models that produced a value land above the price. A discount of this size counts as a positive margin of safety in every GLS scan; whether it is enough depends on the rest of the picture - the health score, the moat and the option premium below.
The 8 models disagree widely: Payback Time gives 3.29 while Graham Growth gives 27.57. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
UNG looks like a fund, note or preferred share rather than an operating company, so the nightly engine files it under Fund / Note: the valuation models are not built for it, and its Wheel Score is capped at 45.
Nine valuation models for UNG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 12.87 | +39% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 19.40 | +109% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 27.57 | +197% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 6.84 | -26% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 5.00 | -46% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 3.43 | -63% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 3.29 | -65% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 18.99 | +105% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 9.05 | -2% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 0.0000 | -100% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: UNG passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our scans drop the stock at the health filter; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. There is no GLS Moat score for UNG: funds, notes and second share lines get none, and so does a company with fewer than two years of accounts on file. The Moat part of the Wheel Score is zero.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.2%, ROE 6.2%, ROA 5.9% - with debt at 0.00 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.7%.
United States Natural Gas Fund LP pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain.
Institutional ownership scores 1/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 6.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | - / 10 | ROE | 6.2% |
| Debt / equity | 0.00 | ROA | 5.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.7% | Payout ratio | 1% |
| Institutions | 1 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 43: Weak
UNG scores 43 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - a fund or note, not a company; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 4/9 (under 6); and filter 8, big enough - market cap $420M (under $1.0B), and the parts are thin too - value good, premium strong, moat weak, health fair, red flags strong, option trading strong, stability weak. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 64% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% top of the sweet spot. It still passes the 25-80% filter, but the Wheel Score rewards it less because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 286,320 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 19.4M shares a day on a market cap of $420M, with a beta of 1.70 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that weak.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | a fund or note, not a company |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 4/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Fails | market cap $420M (under $1.0B) |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Good | 24% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 64% | |
| Moat | Weak | no moat score | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 95/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 29,366 contracts a day, 286,320 open interest | |
| Stability | Weak | beta 1.70, $420M company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for UNG in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Asset Management
The 12 companies below are the closest to United States Natural Gas Fund LP by market cap within the Asset Management industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCEMX ClearBridge Emerging Markets IS | 18.58 | 6.70 | -177% | 9No options | $420M |
| TRHRX T. Rowe Price Target Retirement 2040 Fund | 19.20 | 7,860.98 | +100% | 30No options | $421M |
| MEFIX ClearBridge Emerging Markets Fund - Class FI | 18.41 | 0.8592 | -2043% | 9No options | $418M |
| CICC CION Investment Corp. 7.5 % Notes 2026-31.03.31 | 24.31 | 22.81 | -7% | 12No options | $417M |
| AEDVX American Century Emerging Markets Debt Fund;Investor | 8.99 | 16.47 | +45% | 26No options | $428M |
| KIO KKR Income Opportunities Fund | 10.02 | 23.32 | +57% | 28No options | $411M |
| FSCHX Fidelity Select Chemical Pt | 14.46 | 5.92 | -144% | 10No options | $406M |
| TRFOX T. Rowe Price Target Retirement 2050 Fund | 22.49 | 9,597.10 | +100% | 29No options | $404M |
| PRNYX T. Rowe Price NY Tax-Free Bond | 10.40 | 5.83 | -78% | 11No options | $404M |
| EAALX Eaton Vance-Atlanta Capital Focused Growth | 21.58 | - | - | 12No options | $439M |
| BGR BlackRock Energy and Resources Trust | 17.30 | 25.63 | +33% | 31No options | $440M |
| SAV Saratoga Investment Corp 7.50% | 24.75 | 32.50 | +24% | 23No options | $401M |
⚖ Compare UNG with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about UNG
Is UNG undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, moderately: at 9.27 the stock trades 24% below the average fair value of 12.17 (data as of 5 Nov 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of UNG and what does it mean?
UNG scores 43 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 4, 8. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for UNG?
12.17 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does United States Natural Gas Fund LP report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for UNG in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does UNG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 268 listed contracts with 286,320 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 64% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.