Stock fact sheet · data as of
USA Rare Earth Inc (USAR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol USAR · Basic Materials · Industrial Materials · United States · Speculative
Is USAR undervalued?
At 8.20 (close of 5 Nov 2026), USAR trades 117% over the GLS average fair value of 3.78, with 0 of 1 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The average is built from just 1 models (DCF) - the rest returned nothing because an input they need (dividends, free cash flow, book value) is zero or negative - so treat it with more caution than usual.
The nightly engine files USAR under Speculative - it is losing money or its Piotroski health score is 3 or lower - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for USAR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 3.78 | -54% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 1.39 | -83% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 33.75 | +312% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
USA Rare Earth Inc scores only 3 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 2.2/10 is a weak reading: the accounts do not show returns and margins that competitors have been unable to wear down, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -60.0%, ROE -60.4%, ROA -42.8% - with debt at 0.01 times equity and negative free cash flow.
USA Rare Earth Inc pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Reportable 100% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 8/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 3 / 9 | ROIC | -60.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.2 / 10 | ROE | -60.4% |
| Debt / equity | 0.01 | ROA | -42.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -22.6% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 8 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 17: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 17 USA Rare Earth Inc sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 2, a real business, not a gamble - speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score); and filter 3, below fair value - trades 117% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 3/9 (under 6); and filter 6, no serious red flags - Red Flags score 35 (under 60); and filter 7, a premium worth selling - implied volatility 100% (over 80%); Value (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 100%, above the 80% ceiling of the Wheel Trade Filter on premium. The premium looks generous, but moves of that size can blow through any strike. The option chain is deep: 138,545 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 17.3M shares a day on a market cap of $1.1B, with a beta of 2.82 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that weak.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Fails | speculative (a loss, or a weak Piotroski score) |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 117% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 3/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Fails | Red Flags score 35 (under 60) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Fails | implied volatility 100% (over 80%) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 117% above fair value | |
| Premium | Weak | implied volatility 100% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 2.2/10 | |
| Health | Weak | Piotroski 3/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 35/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 52,223 contracts a day, 138,545 open interest | |
| Stability | Weak | beta 2.82, $1.1B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
USA Rare Earth Inc reports earnings on 9 Nov 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Industrial Materials
The 12 companies below are the closest to USA Rare Earth Inc by market cap within the Industrial Materials industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation | 3.08 | - | - | 23Weak | $1.0B |
| EMAT Evolution Metals & Technologies Corp. Common Stock | 1.85 | - | - | 12No options | $1.2B |
| VZLA Vizsla Silver Corp. | 3.29 | 0.5513 | -497% | 23Weak | $1.2B |
| CMP Compass Minerals International, Inc. | 23.26 | 23.90 | +3% | 30Weak | $976M |
| CRML Critical Metals Corp. | 6.37 | 0.1400 | -4449% | 20Weak | $936M |
| NEXA Nexa Resources S.A. | 11.90 | 20.54 | +42% | 47Weak | $1.6B |
| LAR Lithium Argentina AG | 4.20 | - | - | 16Weak | $689M |
| SGML Sigma Lithium Corporation | 5.62 | 6.93 | +19% | 27Weak | $633M |
| GSM Ferroglobe PLC | 2.93 | 1.63 | -80% | 17Weak | $548M |
| ALM Almonty Industries Inc. | 8.79 | 3.01 | -192% | 19Weak | $2.5B |
| UAMY United States Antimony Corporation | 2.98 | - | - | 15Weak | $446M |
| LAC Lithium Americas Corp. | 1.95 | - | - | 23Weak | $435M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about USAR
Is USAR undervalued right now?
No: at 8.20 the stock trades 117% above the GLS average fair value of 3.78 (data as of 5 Nov 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of USAR and what does it mean?
USAR scores 17 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 2, 3, 4, 6, 7. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for USAR?
3.78 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does USA Rare Earth Inc report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 9 Nov 2026 (after the close), 4 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does USAR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 188 listed contracts with 138,545 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 100% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.