Stock fact sheet · data as of
Waterdrop Inc. (WDH): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Brokers · China · ADR · High Growth
Is WDH undervalued?
WDH has a margin of safety of 98%: the stock closed at 1.03 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 51.43. 8 of the 8 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between DDM (5.91) and GLS Growth (138.16). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files WDH under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for WDH
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 22.19 | +2055% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 129.09 | +12433% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 56.42 | +5378% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 138.16 | +13314% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 11.18 | +985% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 23.46 | +2178% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 5.91 | +473% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 25.08 | +2334% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 5.62 | +446% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 2.00 | +94% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Waterdrop Inc. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability WDH scores 5.8/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 10.6%, ROE 10.7%, ROA 7.8% - with debt at 0.01 times equity and negative free cash flow.
The dividend yield is high at 5.83% (payout ratio 0%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Technical Service Income 98%, Other Revenues 2% (fiscal year FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 5/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.8 / 10 | ROE | 10.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.01 | ROA | 7.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.0% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 5 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 39: No options
No options are listed on Waterdrop Inc. in our nightly snapshot. The Wheel Score is therefore capped at 39 (it reads 39) and the stock is left out of every options screen; the fair value and health figures above are still useful for a plain stock position.
Volume runs at 318k shares a day on a market cap of $373M, with a beta of -0.06 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 9 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 98% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 9 / 15 | moat 5.8/10 | |
| Premium | 0 / 20 | no option data | |
| Stability | 9 / 20 | 318k shares/day, $373M cap, beta -0.06 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 9 Dec 2026, 54 days away - outside the window of a 30-45-day put sold today.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Brokers
The 12 companies below are the closest to Waterdrop Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Brokers industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWFG TWFG, Inc. Common Stock | 24.11 | 27.32 | +12% | 39No options | $311M |
| XHG XChange TEC.INC | 1.85 | - | - | 30No options | $95M |
| QDMI QDM International Inc. | 10.00 | 37.44 | +73% | 39No options | $86M |
| GSHD Goosehead Insurance, Inc | 45.60 | 65.62 | +31% | 73Good | $1.7B |
| AIFU AIFU Inc. | 11.31 | 2.89 | -291% | 20Weak | $67M |
| SLQT SelectQuote, Inc. | 0.3320 | 9.16 | +96% | 53Fair | $59M |
| LIFE Ethos Technologies Inc. | 38.76 | 15.70 | -147% | 23Weak | $2.5B |
| BWIN The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. | 31.93 | 25.55 | -25% | 45Weak | $2.6B |
| NP Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. | 29.45 | 10.62 | -177% | 62Fair | $2.8B |
| CRVL CorVel Corporation | 80.29 | 64.08 | -25% | 58Fair | $4.1B |
| RYAN Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | 38.00 | 37.02 | -3% | 73Good | $4.6B |
| EHTH eHealth, Inc. | 0.6065 | 26.68 | +98% | 51Fair | $19M |
⚖ Compare WDH with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
Screen the whole market the same way
A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about WDH
Is WDH undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 1.03 the stock is 98% below the average fair value of 51.43 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of WDH and what does it mean?
WDH has no listed options in our nightly snapshot, so it cannot be wheeled; its Wheel Score is capped at 39 and shown as "No options".
What is the GLS fair value for WDH?
51.43 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Waterdrop Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 9 Dec 2026 (before the open), 54 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does WDH have listed options, and how liquid are they?
No. The nightly options snapshot found no listed contracts on WDH, so the wheel strategy cannot be run on it and the Wheel Score is capped at 39.