Stock fact sheet · data as of
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Brokers · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is BWIN undervalued?
At 31.93 (close of 16 Oct 2026), BWIN trades 25% over the GLS average fair value of 25.55. 0 of the 1 models land above the price and 1 below. A negative margin of safety costs Value points in the Wheel Score (2 of 25 here) - the models see no discount, which does not make the business a poor one, only the price a full one.
Only 1 of the nine models produced a value (DCF); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files BWIN under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for BWIN
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 25.55 | -20% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -19.47 | -161% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 31.00 | -3% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: BWIN passes 2 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.5 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -1.4%, ROE -5.6%, ROA -0.9% - with debt at 2.95 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 1.7%. Debt of 2.95 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Commission Revenue 80%, Consulting and Service Fee Revenue 8%, Profit Sharing Revenue 5% (quarter Q1 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 5/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded insider buy was on 1 Oct 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 2 / 9 | ROIC | -1.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.5 / 10 | ROE | -5.6% |
| Debt / equity | 2.95 | ROA | -0.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.7% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 5 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
BWIN scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 2/25, Health 4/20, Moat 2/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 17/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 61% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (20 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 3,729 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 1.7M shares a day on a market cap of $2.6B, with a beta of 1.00; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 17 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 2 / 25 | -25% margin of safety | |
| Health | 4 / 20 | Piotroski 2/9 | |
| Moat | 2 / 15 | moat 1.5/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 61% | |
| Stability | 17 / 20 | 1.7M shares/day, $2.6B cap, beta 1.00 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Brokers
The 12 companies below are the closest to The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Brokers industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIFE Ethos Technologies Inc. | 38.76 | 15.70 | -147% | 23Weak | $2.5B |
| NP Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. | 29.45 | 10.62 | -177% | 62Fair | $2.8B |
| GSHD Goosehead Insurance, Inc | 45.60 | 65.62 | +31% | 73Good | $1.7B |
| CRVL CorVel Corporation | 80.29 | 64.08 | -25% | 58Fair | $4.1B |
| RYAN Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | 38.00 | 37.02 | -3% | 73Good | $4.6B |
| WDH Waterdrop Inc. | 1.03 | 51.43 | +98% | 39No options | $373M |
| TWFG TWFG, Inc. Common Stock | 24.11 | 27.32 | +12% | 39No options | $311M |
| BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | 67.98 | 87.34 | +22% | 87Prime | $22.7B |
| WTW Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company | 297.09 | 377.39 | +21% | 81Prime | $27.6B |
| AON Aon plc | 286.80 | 403.95 | +29% | 89Prime | $60.8B |
| AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | 250.10 | 152.67 | -64% | 62Fair | $64.1B |
| XHG XChange TEC.INC | 1.85 | - | - | 30No options | $95M |
⚖ Compare BWIN with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about BWIN
Is BWIN undervalued right now?
No: at 31.93 the stock trades 25% above the GLS average fair value of 25.55 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). The margin of safety is negative.
What is the Wheel Score of BWIN and what does it mean?
BWIN scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for BWIN?
25.55 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 1 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does BWIN have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 126 listed contracts with 3,729 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 61% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.