Stock fact sheet · data as of
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Brokers · United States · Blend
Is NP undervalued?
At 29.45 (close of 16 Oct 2026), NP trades 177% over the GLS average fair value of 10.62, with 0 of 7 models above the price. The stock earns none of the Wheel Score's Value points at this price. That is a statement about price against trailing fundamentals, not about the company's prospects - the Wall Street View and the Growth tab on the Quote page carry the forward numbers.
The 7 models disagree widely: GLS Growth gives 0.8284 while DCF gives 29.41. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files NP under Blend.
Nine valuation models for NP
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 29.41 | -0% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | 12.35 | -58% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 5.11 | -83% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 0.8284 | -97% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 13.32 | -55% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 10.15 | -66% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 3.14 | -89% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -2.56 | -109% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 34.43 | +17% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
On financial health NP scores 8/9 (Piotroski): most of the nine tests - positive earnings and cash flow, falling debt, rising margins and turnover - are passed, which is the kind of balance sheet a wheel trader is happy to be assigned. The GLS Moat score is 7.2 out of 10: a ten-year record that is consistent in some of the metrics the score tracks (revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, returns on capital) and patchy in others.
Returns on capital are high - ROIC 299.2%, ROE -16.4%, ROA 57.3% - with debt at -1.05 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 2.6%.
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Commission Income 76%, Fee Income 24% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 6/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 8 / 9 | ROIC | 299.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.2 / 10 | ROE | -16.4% |
| Debt / equity | -1.05 | ROA | 57.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.6% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 6 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 62: Fair
NP scores 62 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 0/25, Health 18/20, Moat 11/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 14/20. Value (0/25) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 59% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 37 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 435k shares a day on a market cap of $2.8B, with a beta of -0.18 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 0 / 25 | -177% margin of safety | |
| Health | 18 / 20 | Piotroski 8/9 | |
| Moat | 11 / 15 | moat 7.2/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 59% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 435k shares/day, $2.8B cap, beta -0.18 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. reports earnings on 20 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Brokers
The 12 companies below are the closest to Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. by market cap within the Insurance - Brokers industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWIN The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. | 31.93 | 25.55 | -25% | 45Weak | $2.6B |
| LIFE Ethos Technologies Inc. | 38.76 | 15.70 | -147% | 23Weak | $2.5B |
| CRVL CorVel Corporation | 80.29 | 64.08 | -25% | 58Fair | $4.1B |
| GSHD Goosehead Insurance, Inc | 45.60 | 65.62 | +31% | 73Good | $1.7B |
| RYAN Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | 38.00 | 37.02 | -3% | 73Good | $4.6B |
| WDH Waterdrop Inc. | 1.03 | 51.43 | +98% | 39No options | $373M |
| BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | 67.98 | 87.34 | +22% | 87Prime | $22.7B |
| TWFG TWFG, Inc. Common Stock | 24.11 | 27.32 | +12% | 39No options | $311M |
| WTW Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company | 297.09 | 377.39 | +21% | 81Prime | $27.6B |
| AON Aon plc | 286.80 | 403.95 | +29% | 89Prime | $60.8B |
| AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | 250.10 | 152.67 | -64% | 62Fair | $64.1B |
| XHG XChange TEC.INC | 1.85 | - | - | 30No options | $95M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NP
Is NP undervalued right now?
No: at 29.45 the stock trades 177% above the GLS average fair value of 10.62 (data as of 16 Oct 2026), well beyond what trailing earnings, cash flow and book value support.
What is the Wheel Score of NP and what does it mean?
NP scores 62 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NP?
10.62 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 7 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 20 Oct 2026 (after the close), 4 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NP have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 82 listed contracts with 37 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 59% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.