Stock fact sheet · data as of
Arbor Realty Trust (ABR): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage · United States · High Growth
Is ABR undervalued?
At 2.80 (close of 16 Oct 2026), ABR trades 93% below the GLS average fair value of 40.95. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 9 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Arbor Realty Trust the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between EPV (3.36) and DCF (241.71). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files ABR under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for ABR
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 241.71 | +8532% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 9.95 | +255% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 17.30 | +518% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 7.56 | +170% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 14.75 | +427% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 32.37 | +1056% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 27.75 | +891% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 13.83 | +394% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 3.36 | +20% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -58.67 | -2195% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 3.50 | +25% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Arbor Realty Trust scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 3.3/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 1.1%, ROE 5.0%, ROA 1.0% - with debt at 3.74 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 54.3%. Debt of 3.74 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 33.57% (payout ratio 462%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Agency Business 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 8/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.3 / 10 | ROE | 5.0% |
| Debt / equity | 3.74 | ROA | 1.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 54.3% | Payout ratio | 462% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 8 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 70: Good
With a Wheel Score of 70 - the Good band - Arbor Realty Trust clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 16/20, Moat 5/15, Premium 10/20, Stability 15/20; Moat (5/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 100% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (10 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 202,026 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 9.1M shares a day on a market cap of $522M, with a beta of 1.19; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 15 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 93% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 5 / 15 | moat 3.3/10 | |
| Premium | 10 / 20 | implied volatility 100% | |
| Stability | 15 / 20 | 9.1M shares/day, $522M cap, beta 1.19 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Arbor Realty Trust reports earnings on 30 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Mortgage
The 12 companies below are the closest to Arbor Realty Trust by market cap within the REIT - Mortgage industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IVR Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. | 5.64 | 18.84 | +70% | 74Good | $524M |
| FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | 6.27 | 44.26 | +86% | 86Prime | $521M |
| AOMN Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. 9 | 24.43 | 42.53 | +43% | 39No options | $567M |
| BRSP BrightSpire Capital, Inc. | 3.79 | 10.84 | +65% | 45Weak | $480M |
| PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | 6.87 | 53.65 | +87% | 71Good | $599M |
| TRTX TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. | 5.64 | 15.47 | +64% | 75Good | $433M |
| MFAN MFA Financial, Inc. 8.875% Senior Notes | 25.17 | 96.77 | +74% | 39No options | $677M |
| MFA MFA Financial, Inc. | 6.70 | 48.10 | +86% | 81Prime | $677M |
| MFAO MFA Financial, Inc. 9.000% Senior Notes | 25.10 | 115.10 | +78% | 39No options | $679M |
| ADAMN Adamas Trust, Inc. | 22.91 | 94.82 | +76% | 39No options | $679M |
| ADAMZ Adamas Trust, Inc. 7.000% Series G Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock | 15.70 | 105.91 | +85% | 38No options | $689M |
| ADAML Adamas Trust, Inc. - 6.875% Series F Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, $0.01 par value per share | 23.69 | 150.42 | +84% | 38No options | $697M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ABR
Is ABR undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 2.80 the stock is 93% below the average fair value of 40.95 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ABR and what does it mean?
ABR scores 70 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ABR?
40.95 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Arbor Realty Trust report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 30 Oct 2026 (before the open), 14 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ABR have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 354 listed contracts with 202,026 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 100% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.