Stock fact sheet · data as of
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NREF): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage · United States · High Growth
Is NREF undervalued?
At 15.33 (close of 16 Oct 2026), NREF trades 77% below the GLS average fair value of 67.95. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 6 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.
There is a wide gap between Lynch (7.30) and GLS Growth (327.41). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files NREF under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for NREF
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 58.15 | +279% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 49.23 | +221% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 58.73 | +283% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 7.30 | -52% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 327.41 | +2036% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 7.34 | -52% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 14.54 | -5% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 29.43 | +92% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 59.42 | +288% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -233.50 | -1623% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 16.00 | +4% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. scores only 4 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, which fails the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. A reading this low means several of the basic tests - positive earnings, positive operating cash flow, falling debt, no new share issuance - are not met. A GLS Moat score of 3.9/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.0%, ROE 14.0%, ROA 2.0% - with debt at 5.95 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 2.4%. Debt of 5.95 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 13.05% (payout ratio 73%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual. Revenue comes mainly from Rental Income 100% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 9/10, insider activity 4/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 3.9 / 10 | ROE | 14.0% |
| Debt / equity | 5.95 | ROA | 2.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.4% | Payout ratio | 73% |
| Institutions | 9 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 4 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 64: Fair
A Wheel Score of 64 puts NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. in the Fair band - below the 70 the Sunday Scan requires. Value 25/25, Health 9/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 18/20 and Stability 6/20; the weakest part is Stability (6/20).
Implied volatility is 67% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (18 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 444 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 37k shares a day on a market cap of $289M, with a beta of 1.14; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 6 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 77% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 3.9/10 | |
| Premium | 18 / 20 | implied volatility 67% | |
| Stability | 6 / 20 | 37k shares/day, $289M cap, beta 1.14 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. reports earnings on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Mortgage
The 12 companies below are the closest to NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. by market cap within the REIT - Mortgage industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KREF KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. | 5.97 | 46.66 | +87% | 45Weak | $352M |
| REFI Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. | 9.14 | 20.63 | +56% | 73Good | $234M |
| RWT Redwood Trust, Inc. | 2.95 | 2.77 | -6% | 58Fair | $371M |
| ACRE Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation | 3.58 | 6.97 | +49% | 45Weak | $199M |
| TRTX TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. | 5.64 | 15.47 | +64% | 75Good | $433M |
| AOMR Angel Oak Mortgage, Inc. | 7.22 | 17.88 | +60% | 39No options | $180M |
| RCD Ready Capital Corporation Notes -15.12.29 | 21.29 | 9.60 | -122% | 17No options | $177M |
| RC Ready Capital Corporation | 1.07 | 44.42 | +98% | 45Weak | $177M |
| MITT TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc | 5.54 | 203.75 | +97% | 72Good | $176M |
| MITP TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc 9.500% Senior Notes due 2029 | 25.05 | 247.43 | +90% | 39No options | $176M |
| BRSP BrightSpire Capital, Inc. | 3.79 | 10.84 | +65% | 45Weak | $480M |
| CMTG Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. | 1.18 | - | - | 39Weak | $166M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about NREF
Is NREF undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 15.33 the stock is 77% below the average fair value of 67.95 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of NREF and what does it mean?
NREF scores 64 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for NREF?
67.95 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 29 Oct 2026 (before the open), 13 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does NREF have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 110 listed contracts with 444 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 67% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.