Stock fact sheet · data as of
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage · United States · Speculative / Distressed
Is KREF undervalued?
KREF has a margin of safety of 87%: the stock closed at 5.97 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 46.66. 3 of the 3 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
Only 3 of the nine models produced a value (DCF, 10 Cap, DDM); the others need a dividend, positive free cash flow or positive book value the company does not have yet, so the average rests on a narrow base.
The nightly engine files KREF under Speculative / Distressed - negative earnings or a Piotroski score of 3 or less - which caps its Wheel Score at 45 and keeps it out of the Sunday Scan.
Nine valuation models for KREF
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 116.00 | +1843% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | - | - | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share; no value tonight |
| Graham Growth | - | - | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields; no value tonight |
| Lynch | - | - | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25%; no value tonight |
| GLS Growth | - | - | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year; no value tonight |
| 10 Cap | 13.69 | +129% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | 10.30 | +73% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | - | - | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth; no value tonight |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -86.93 | -1556% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 8.25 | +38% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: KREF passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.9 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC -0.8%, ROE -4.0%, ROA -0.7% - with debt at 4.00 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 9.7%. Debt of 4.00 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is high at 11.72% (payout ratio -47%). A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 6/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | -0.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.9 / 10 | ROE | -4.0% |
| Debt / equity | 4.00 | ROA | -0.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 9.7% | Payout ratio | -47% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 6 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 45: Weak
KREF scores 45 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50), capped at 45 because the engine files it as Speculative / Distressed. Value 25/25, Health 9/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 0/20, Stability 13/20. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
No implied volatility is recorded for KREF - the nightly snapshot found no near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - so the Premium part of the Wheel Score is zero. Chain open interest is thin - 1,808 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 1.3M shares a day on a market cap of $352M, with a beta of 0.93; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 87% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 1.9/10 | |
| Premium | 0 / 20 | no option data | |
| Stability | 13 / 20 | 1.3M shares/day, $352M cap, beta 0.93 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. reports earnings on 20 Oct 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in REIT - Mortgage
The 12 companies below are the closest to KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. by market cap within the REIT - Mortgage industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RWT Redwood Trust, Inc. | 2.95 | 2.77 | -6% | 58Fair | $371M |
| NREF NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. | 15.33 | 67.95 | +77% | 64Fair | $289M |
| TRTX TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. | 5.64 | 15.47 | +64% | 75Good | $433M |
| BRSP BrightSpire Capital, Inc. | 3.79 | 10.84 | +65% | 45Weak | $480M |
| FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc. | 6.27 | 44.26 | +86% | 86Prime | $521M |
| ABR Arbor Realty Trust | 2.80 | 40.95 | +93% | 70Good | $522M |
| IVR Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. | 5.64 | 18.84 | +70% | 74Good | $524M |
| REFI Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. | 9.14 | 20.63 | +56% | 73Good | $234M |
| AOMN Angel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc. 9 | 24.43 | 42.53 | +43% | 39No options | $567M |
| PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust | 6.87 | 53.65 | +87% | 71Good | $599M |
| ACRE Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation | 3.58 | 6.97 | +49% | 45Weak | $199M |
| MFAN MFA Financial, Inc. 8.875% Senior Notes | 25.17 | 96.77 | +74% | 39No options | $677M |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about KREF
Is KREF undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 5.97 the stock is 87% below the average fair value of 46.66 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of KREF and what does it mean?
KREF scores 45 out of 100 (Weak). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for KREF?
46.66 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 3 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 20 Oct 2026 (after the close), 4 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does KREF have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 54 listed contracts with 1,808 open interest across all expiries. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.