Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score

Is REFI undervalued?

At 9.14 (close of 16 Oct 2026), REFI trades 56% below the GLS average fair value of 20.63. That average comes from 9 models run on the latest filings, and 8 of them land above the current price. Margins of safety over 30% are the exception rather than the rule across the ~7,400 stocks we value each night, so the number earns Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. the full Value points in the Wheel Score - and a closer look at what the market is pricing in.

The 9 models disagree widely: Lynch gives 8.56 while Payback Time gives 28.91. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.

The nightly engine files REFI under High Yield Income: a dividend yield above 4%.

Nine valuation models for REFI

Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.

Quality and financial health

Financial health is average - REFI passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is 7.5 out of 10, built from ten years of revenue, earnings, margins, cash flow, share count and returns on capital scored for consistency - a high reading that points to a durable business.

Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 8.9%, ROE 11.7%, ROA 8.5% - with debt at 0.32 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 11.5%.

The dividend yield is high at 20.57% (payout ratio 138%) - a payout above 100% of earnings, which is not covered by profits. A yield this size is often the market's way of pricing a risk to the payout, so the health score and cash flow matter more than usual.

Institutional ownership scores 4/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.

Wheel Score 73: Good

REFI scores 73 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Good band, 65-79). The score blends the margin of safety (Value, 25/25), Piotroski health (11/20), the GLS moat (11/15), the option premium on offer (17/20) and how easily the stock trades (8/20). Stability (8/20) is the part holding the score back.

Implied volatility is 71% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (17 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is thin - 425 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.

Volume runs at 198k shares a day on a market cap of $234M, with a beta of 0.34 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 8 of 20.

The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.

Upcoming events

The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (before the open), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.

Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.

Similar stocks in REIT - Mortgage

The 12 companies below are the closest to Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. by market cap within the REIT - Mortgage industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.

⚖ Compare REFI with 7 of them   All Real Estate stocks →