Stock fact sheet · data as of
Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · United States · Value
Is AGM undervalued?
Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM) closed at 206.22 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 325.02, which puts the price 37% below it. 5 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (61.78) and 10 Cap (666.44). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files AGM under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for AGM
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 284.91 | +38% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 530.50 | +157% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 181.58 | -12% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 61.78 | -70% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 666.44 | +223% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 547.74 | +166% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 92.70 | -55% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 234.51 | +14% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -3,480.76 | -1788% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 233.00 | +13% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Federal Agricultural Mortgage scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule with room to spare. A GLS Moat score of 4.6/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.6%, ROE 12.1%, ROA 0.6% - with debt at 17.93 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 16.1%. Debt of 17.93 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 3.05% at a payout ratio of 41%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold.
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 0.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.6 / 10 | ROE | 12.1% |
| Debt / equity | 17.93 | ROA | 0.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 16.1% | Payout ratio | 41% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 77: Good
With a Wheel Score of 77 - the Good band - Federal Agricultural Mortgage clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 16/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 9/20; Stability (9/20) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 36% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 2,440 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 100k shares a day on a market cap of $1.9B, with a beta of 1.07; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 9 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 37% margin of safety | |
| Health | 16 / 20 | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.6/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 36% | |
| Stability | 9 / 20 | 100k shares/day, $1.9B cap, beta 1.07 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Financial - Credit Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to Federal Agricultural Mortgage by market cap within the Financial - Credit Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EZPW EZCORP, Inc. | 33.13 | 63.77 | +48% | 81Prime | $1.9B |
| WU The Western Union Company | 6.05 | 23.53 | +74% | 82Prime | $1.9B |
| ECPG Encore Capital Group, Inc. | 102.60 | 155.51 | +34% | 76Good | $2.2B |
| UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc. | 22.74 | 21.46 | -6% | 52Fair | $2.2B |
| ATLC Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 93.54 | 497.20 | +81% | 39No options | $1.4B |
| ATLCP Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 22.89 | 263.89 | +91% | 39No options | $1.4B |
| ATLCZ Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 9.25% Senior Notes due 2029 | 25.11 | 271.22 | +91% | 39No options | $1.4B |
| ATLCL Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026 | 25.00 | 275.79 | +91% | 39No options | $1.4B |
| JCAP Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock | 20.74 | 75.70 | +73% | 79Good | $1.2B |
| PRG PROG Holdings, Inc. | 29.82 | 113.07 | +74% | 76Good | $1.2B |
| BFH Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | 101.31 | 439.49 | +77% | 85Prime | $3.9B |
| RWAYI Runway Growth Finance Corp. 7.25% Notes due 2031 | 24.68 | 7.84 | -215% | 8No options | $898M |
⚖ Compare AGM with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AGM
Is AGM undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 206.22 the stock is 37% below the average fair value of 325.02 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of AGM and what does it mean?
AGM scores 77 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AGM?
325.02 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Federal Agricultural Mortgage report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 2 Nov 2026 (after the close), 17 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AGM have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 366 listed contracts with 2,440 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 36% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.