Stock fact sheet · data as of
Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol AGM · Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · United States · Value
Is AGM undervalued?
Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM) closed at 205.58 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 8 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 332.98, which puts the price 38% below it. 5 of the 8 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (61.78) and 10 Cap (666.44). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, AGM is clearly cheaper than it is fast-growing, so the nightly engine files it under Value (value score 69, growth score 11, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for AGM
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 284.91 | +39% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 572.61 | +179% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 203.11 | -1% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 61.78 | -70% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 666.44 | +224% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 547.74 | +166% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 92.70 | -55% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 234.51 | +14% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -3,480.76 | -1793% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 233.00 | +13% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Federal Agricultural Mortgage scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter with room to spare. On durability AGM scores 6.4/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Moat Score tab on the Quote page's Financials view shows which of the four parts hold it back.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 0.6%, ROE 12.1%, ROA 0.6% - with debt at 17.93 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 16.2%. Debt of 17.93 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
The dividend yield is 3.06% at a payout ratio of 41%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold.
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 10/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 0.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.4 / 10 | ROE | 12.1% |
| Debt / equity | 17.93 | ROA | 0.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 16.2% | Payout ratio | 41% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 10 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 80: Good
With a Wheel Score of 80 - the Good band - Federal Agricultural Mortgage passes all 9 Wheel Trade Filters. How it ranks: value strong, premium strong, moat good, health good, red flags strong, option trading weak, stability fair. Option trading (weak) is the part keeping it out of the Prime band.
Implied volatility is 34% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: enough to pass the 25-80% Wheel Trade Filter, but under the 35-60% sweet spot the score rewards most. Chain open interest is 2,049 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 166k shares a day on a market cap of $1.9B, with a beta of 1.03; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 38% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 34% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 6.4/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Red Flags | Strong | Red Flags score 90/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 370 contracts a day, 2,049 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 1.03, $1.9B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
Federal Agricultural Mortgage reports earnings on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Financial - Credit Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to Federal Agricultural Mortgage by market cap within the Financial - Credit Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WU The Western Union Company | 6.59 | 20.66 | +68% | 53Fair | $2.1B |
| ECPG Encore Capital Group, Inc. | 99.93 | 169.79 | +41% | 50Fair | $2.1B |
| EZPW EZCORP, Inc. | 29.52 | 64.16 | +54% | 51Fair | $1.7B |
| UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc. | 23.38 | 22.86 | -2% | 29Weak | $2.3B |
| PRG PROG Holdings, Inc. | 39.89 | 140.44 | +72% | 48Weak | $1.6B |
| ATLC Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 99.75 | 502.10 | +80% | 34No options | $1.5B |
| ATLCL Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026 | 25.02 | 275.65 | +91% | 26No options | $1.5B |
| ATLCZ Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 9.25% Senior Notes due 2029 | 25.22 | 271.56 | +91% | 28No options | $1.5B |
| ATLCP Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 20.88 | 258.14 | +92% | 34No options | $1.3B |
| JCAP Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock | 20.64 | 75.43 | +73% | 49Weak | $1.2B |
| TRNI Trinity Capital Inc. | 25.15 | 75.63 | +67% | 26No options | $1.1B |
| SLM SLM Corporation | 18.68 | 83.62 | +78% | 80Good | $3.5B |
⚖ Compare AGM with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AGM
Is AGM undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 205.58 the stock is 38% below the average fair value of 332.98 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of AGM and what does it mean?
AGM scores 80 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for AGM?
332.98 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Federal Agricultural Mortgage report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 0 days from the data date of 5 Nov 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AGM have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 142 listed contracts with 2,049 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 34% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.