Stock fact sheet · data as of
Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol ECPG · Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · United States · Blend
Is ECPG undervalued?
ECPG has a margin of safety of 41%: the stock closed at 99.93 on 5 Nov 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 169.79. 7 of the 8 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our scans treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (35.01) and Graham Growth (428.40). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, neither cheapness nor growth clearly wins for ECPG, so the nightly engine files it under Blend (value score 67, growth score 47, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for ECPG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 124.70 | +25% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 136.60 | +37% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 428.40 | +329% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 149.26 | +49% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 35.01 | -65% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 171.03 | +71% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 130.80 | +31% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 182.50 | +83% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -196.71 | -297% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 124.00 | +24% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Encore Capital Group, Inc. scores 7 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score, the nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency on the latest annual accounts - a strong reading that passes the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter with room to spare. On durability ECPG scores 7.0/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Moat Score tab on the Quote page's Financials view shows which of the four parts hold it back.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.0%, ROE 26.3%, ROA 4.8% - with debt at 4.23 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 7.1%. Debt of 4.23 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
Encore Capital Group, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Operating Segments 100% (quarter Q3 FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 7 / 9 | ROIC | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 7.0 / 10 | ROE | 26.3% |
| Debt / equity | 4.23 | ROA | 4.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 7.1% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 50: Fair
A Wheel Score of 50 keeps Encore Capital Group, Inc. under 70, the mark only a stock that passes all 9 Wheel Trade Filters can reach: it fails filter 1, options that actually trade - options too quiet (540 open interest, 169 a day). The parts: value strong, premium strong, moat good, health good, red flags good, option trading weak, stability fair.
Implied volatility is 51% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is thin - 540 contracts across every expiry - so fills at a fair price are not guaranteed; a 30-45-day put may not exist at a usable strike.
Volume runs at 270k shares a day on a market cap of $2.1B, with a beta of 1.31 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that fair.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Fails | options too quiet (540 open interest, 169 a day) |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Passes | Piotroski F-score 6 or more out of 9 (a company with no score on file passes) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 41% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 51% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 7.0/10 | |
| Health | Good | Piotroski 7/9 | |
| Red Flags | Good | Red Flags score 82/100 | |
| Option trading | Weak | 169 contracts a day, 540 open interest | |
| Stability | Fair | beta 1.31, $2.1B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for ECPG in the nightly calendar.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WU The Western Union Company | 6.59 | 20.66 | +68% | 53Fair | $2.1B |
| UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc. | 23.38 | 22.86 | -2% | 29Weak | $2.3B |
| AGM Federal Agricultural Mortgage | 205.58 | 332.98 | +38% | 80Good | $1.9B |
| EZPW EZCORP, Inc. | 29.52 | 64.16 | +54% | 51Fair | $1.7B |
| PRG PROG Holdings, Inc. | 39.89 | 140.44 | +72% | 48Weak | $1.6B |
| ATLC Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 99.75 | 502.10 | +80% | 34No options | $1.5B |
| ATLCL Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026 | 25.02 | 275.65 | +91% | 26No options | $1.5B |
| ATLCZ Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 9.25% Senior Notes due 2029 | 25.22 | 271.56 | +91% | 28No options | $1.5B |
| SLM SLM Corporation | 18.68 | 83.62 | +78% | 80Good | $3.5B |
| ATLCP Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 20.88 | 258.14 | +92% | 34No options | $1.3B |
| JCAP Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock | 20.64 | 75.43 | +73% | 49Weak | $1.2B |
| BFH Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | 104.83 | 428.64 | +76% | 85Prime | $4.0B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ECPG
Is ECPG undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 99.93 the stock is 41% below the average fair value of 169.79 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ECPG and what does it mean?
ECPG scores 50 out of 100 (Fair) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 1. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for ECPG?
169.79 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Encore Capital Group, Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for ECPG in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does ECPG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 84 listed contracts with 540 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 51% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.