Stock fact sheet · data as of
Encore Capital Group, Inc. (ECPG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · United States · Value
Is ECPG undervalued?
ECPG has a margin of safety of 34%: the stock closed at 102.60 on 16 Oct 2026 against a GLS average fair value of 155.51. 7 of the 8 valuation models that produced a number sit above the price. Our screens treat a discount this large as a strong starting point for a cash-secured put, not as a verdict - the fair value is a model output, and a wide gap can mean the models are missing something the market knows.
There is a wide gap between GLS Growth (29.82) and Graham Growth (364.91). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files ECPG under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for ECPG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 119.25 | +16% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 125.52 | +22% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 364.91 | +256% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 127.14 | +24% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 29.82 | -71% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 210.73 | +105% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 111.28 | +8% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 155.45 | +52% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -196.71 | -292% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 112.00 | +9% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Encore Capital Group, Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.1/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 5.0%, ROE 26.3%, ROA 4.8% - with debt at 4.23 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 6.0%. Debt of 4.23 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
Encore Capital Group, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Operating Segments 100% (quarter Q3 FY2025).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.1 / 10 | ROE | 26.3% |
| Debt / equity | 4.23 | ROA | 4.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.0% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 76: Good
With a Wheel Score of 76 - the Good band - Encore Capital Group, Inc. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 13/20, Moat 6/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 12/20; Moat (6/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 53% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 2,362 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 298k shares a day on a market cap of $2.2B, with a beta of 1.31 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 12 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 34% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 6 / 15 | moat 4.1/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 53% | |
| Stability | 12 / 20 | 298k shares/day, $2.2B cap, beta 1.31 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
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The 12 companies below are the closest to Encore Capital Group, Inc. by market cap within the Financial - Credit Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| WU The Western Union Company | 6.05 | 23.53 | +74% | 82Prime | $1.9B |
| ATLC Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 93.54 | 497.20 | +81% | 39No options | $1.4B |
| ATLCP Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 22.89 | 263.89 | +91% | 39No options | $1.4B |
| ATLCZ Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 9.25% Senior Notes due 2029 | 25.11 | 271.22 | +91% | 39No options | $1.4B |
| ATLCL Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026 | 25.00 | 275.79 | +91% | 39No options | $1.4B |
| BFH Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | 101.31 | 439.49 | +77% | 85Prime | $3.9B |
| JCAP Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock | 20.74 | 75.70 | +73% | 79Good | $1.2B |
| PRG PROG Holdings, Inc. | 29.82 | 113.07 | +74% | 76Good | $1.2B |
| SEZL Sezzle Inc. | 123.11 | 191.61 | +36% | 78Good | $4.2B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about ECPG
Is ECPG undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 102.60 the stock is 34% below the average fair value of 155.51 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of ECPG and what does it mean?
ECPG scores 76 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for ECPG?
155.51 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 8 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Encore Capital Group, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 4 Nov 2026 (after the close), 19 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does ECPG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 258 listed contracts with 2,362 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 53% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.