Stock fact sheet · data as of
PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol PRG · Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · United States · Value
Is PRG undervalued?
PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) closed at 39.89 on 5 Nov 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 140.44, which puts the price 72% below it. 8 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
There is a wide gap between DDM (8.09) and DCF (371.15). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
Ranked against every other company we cover, PRG is clearly cheaper than it is fast-growing, so the nightly engine files it under Value (value score 68, growth score 41, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for PRG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 371.15 | +830% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 41.78 | +5% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 127.31 | +219% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 48.93 | +23% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 156.26 | +292% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 191.36 | +380% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 276.78 | +594% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 8.09 | -80% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 42.28 | +6% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 5.61 | -86% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 48.50 | +22% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
PROG Holdings, Inc. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability PRG scores 6.1/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Moat Score tab on the Quote page's Financials view shows which of the four parts hold it back.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 10.8%, ROE 19.7%, ROA 9.1% - with debt at 0.82 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 20.3%.
The dividend yield is 1.38% with a payout ratio of 15% - a small yield that leaves most of the earnings in the business. Revenue comes mainly from Lease Revenues and Fees 93%, Product and Service, Other 8% (quarter Q3 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 8/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 10.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 6.1 / 10 | ROE | 19.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.82 | ROA | 9.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 20.3% | Payout ratio | 15% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 8 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 48: Weak
With a Wheel Score of 48 PROG Holdings, Inc. sits in the Weak band. It fails filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 5/9 (under 6); Stability (weak) is its weakest part.
Implied volatility is 50% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - inside the 35-60% sweet spot the Wheel Score rewards most: enough premium to be worth selling, not so much that the risk is unpaid. Chain open interest is 19,060 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 946k shares a day on a market cap of $1.6B, with a beta of 1.83 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that weak.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Passes | Trading below the nine-model average fair value (margin of safety above 0) |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 5/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Passes | Red Flags score 60 or more out of 100 (earnings, margins, debt, analysts, filings and price checked the same way for every stock) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Strong | 72% below fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 50% | |
| Moat | Good | moat 6.1/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Red Flags | Fair | Red Flags score 75/100 | |
| Option trading | Fair | 1,342 contracts a day, 19,060 open interest | |
| Stability | Weak | beta 1.83, $1.6B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for PRG in the nightly calendar.
Analysts upgraded PRG 1 time in the last 30 days with no downgrades; the latest action was a reiterated rating by Stephens on 29 Oct 2026.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Financial - Credit Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to PROG Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Financial - Credit Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATLC Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 99.75 | 502.10 | +80% | 34No options | $1.5B |
| ATLCL Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026 | 25.02 | 275.65 | +91% | 26No options | $1.5B |
| ATLCZ Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 9.25% Senior Notes due 2029 | 25.22 | 271.56 | +91% | 28No options | $1.5B |
| EZPW EZCORP, Inc. | 29.52 | 64.16 | +54% | 51Fair | $1.7B |
| AGM Federal Agricultural Mortgage | 205.58 | 332.98 | +38% | 80Good | $1.9B |
| ATLCP Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 20.88 | 258.14 | +92% | 34No options | $1.3B |
| JCAP Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock | 20.64 | 75.43 | +73% | 49Weak | $1.2B |
| WU The Western Union Company | 6.59 | 20.66 | +68% | 53Fair | $2.1B |
| ECPG Encore Capital Group, Inc. | 99.93 | 169.79 | +41% | 50Fair | $2.1B |
| TRNI Trinity Capital Inc. | 25.15 | 75.63 | +67% | 26No options | $1.1B |
| UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc. | 23.38 | 22.86 | -2% | 29Weak | $2.3B |
| RWAYI Runway Growth Finance Corp. 7.25% Notes due 2031 | 24.81 | 26.78 | +7% | 15No options | $903M |
⚖ Compare PRG with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about PRG
Is PRG undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 39.89 the stock is 72% below the average fair value of 140.44 (data as of 5 Nov 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of PRG and what does it mean?
PRG scores 48 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filter 4. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for PRG?
140.44 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does PROG Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for PRG in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does PRG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 66 listed contracts with 19,060 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 50% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.