Stock fact sheet · data as of
PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · United States · Value
Is PRG undervalued?
PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) closed at 29.82 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 113.07, which puts the price 74% below it. 8 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
There is a wide gap between DDM (8.09) and DCF (390.82). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files PRG under Value: positive earnings at a P/E of 18 or less.
Nine valuation models for PRG
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 390.82 | +1211% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 40.72 | +37% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 100.01 | +235% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 35.57 | +19% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 139.18 | +367% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 116.51 | +291% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 146.05 | +390% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 8.09 | -73% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 40.70 | +36% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | 5.49 | -82% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 47.50 | +59% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
PROG Holdings, Inc. scores 6 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that passes the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. A GLS Moat score of 4.6/10 is a weak reading: the ten-year history the score grades (revenue, EPS, book value, margins, cash flow, share count, ROIC) has not been steady, so the Moat part of the Wheel Score contributes little.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 10.8%, ROE 19.7%, ROA 9.1% - with debt at 0.82 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 14.5%.
The dividend yield is 1.84% at a payout ratio of 15%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Lease Revenues and Fees 93%, Product and Service, Other 7% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 8/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 6 / 9 | ROIC | 10.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 4.6 / 10 | ROE | 19.7% |
| Debt / equity | 0.82 | ROA | 9.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 14.5% | Payout ratio | 15% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 8 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 76: Good
With a Wheel Score of 76 - the Good band - PROG Holdings, Inc. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 13/20, Moat 7/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 11/20; Moat (7/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 60% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (20 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. Chain open interest is 18,153 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 618k shares a day on a market cap of $1.2B, with a beta of 1.78 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 11 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 74% margin of safety | |
| Health | 13 / 20 | Piotroski 6/9 | |
| Moat | 7 / 15 | moat 4.6/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 60% | |
| Stability | 11 / 20 | 618k shares/day, $1.2B cap, beta 1.78 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
PROG Holdings, Inc. reports earnings on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open) - inside the 14-day window the Sunday Scan avoids, because a put sold now would carry the report's gap risk.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Financial - Credit Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to PROG Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Financial - Credit Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JCAP Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock | 20.74 | 75.70 | +73% | 79Good | $1.2B |
| ATLCL Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026 | 25.00 | 275.79 | +91% | 39No options | $1.4B |
| ATLCZ Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 9.25% Senior Notes due 2029 | 25.11 | 271.22 | +91% | 39No options | $1.4B |
| ATLCP Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 22.89 | 263.89 | +91% | 39No options | $1.4B |
| ATLC Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 93.54 | 497.20 | +81% | 39No options | $1.4B |
| RWAYI Runway Growth Finance Corp. 7.25% Notes due 2031 | 24.68 | 7.84 | -215% | 8No options | $898M |
| NAVI Navient Corporation | 9.56 | 40.08 | +76% | 45Weak | $897M |
| WRLD World Acceptance Corporation | 172.33 | 314.22 | +45% | 39No options | $803M |
| FINV FinVolution Group | 3.16 | 52.44 | +94% | 72Good | $784M |
| LU Lufax Holding Ltd | 0.8835 | 294,618.71 | +100% | 45Weak | $766M |
| WU The Western Union Company | 6.05 | 23.53 | +74% | 82Prime | $1.9B |
| PRAA PRA Group, Inc. | 19.81 | 5.98 | -231% | 45Weak | $746M |
⚖ Compare PRG with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about PRG
Is PRG undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 29.82 the stock is 74% below the average fair value of 113.07 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of PRG and what does it mean?
PRG scores 76 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for PRG?
113.07 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does PROG Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 28 Oct 2026 (before the open), 12 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does PRG have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 156 listed contracts with 18,153 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 60% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.