Stock fact sheet · data as of
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Ticker symbol UPST · Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · United States · Growth
Is UPST undervalued?
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) closed at 23.38 on 5 Nov 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 22.86 (2.3% above fair value). 2 of the 5 models that produced a number sit above the price, 3 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
The 5 models disagree widely: EPV gives 7.38 while GLS Growth gives 40.67. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
Ranked against every other company we cover, UPST is clearly faster-growing than it is cheap, so the nightly engine files it under Growth (value score 28, growth score 89, out of 100).
Nine valuation models for UPST
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 11.63 | -50% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 38.00 | +63% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 16.61 | -29% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 40.67 | +74% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 7.38 | -68% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -10.04 | -143% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 36.50 | +56% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is average - UPST passes 5 of the nine Piotroski tests, which falls one point short of the "Piotroski 6 or more" Wheel Trade Filter. The Financials tab on the Quote page shows which tests fail. The GLS Moat score is low at 2.4 out of 10: returns on capital, margins or the balance sheet have not shown a lasting edge yet - often a young company, a thin-margin business or one that has only recently turned profitable.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.0%, ROE 6.7%, ROA 1.8% - with debt at 2.32 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 2.32 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
Upstart Holdings, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Servicing Fees, Net 54%, Servicing Fees 33%, Borrower Fees 9% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 6/10 and Congressional trading 2/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 2.4 / 10 | ROE | 6.7% |
| Debt / equity | 2.32 | ROA | 1.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -8.6% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 6 · 2 / 10 |
Wheel Score 29: Weak
UPST scores 29 out of 100 on the Wheel Score, in the Weak band (under 50): it fails filter 3, below fair value - trades 2% above our fair value; and filter 4, financially healthy - Piotroski 5/9 (under 6); and filter 6, no serious red flags - Red Flags score 45 (under 60), and the parts are thin too - value weak, premium strong, moat weak, health fair, red flags weak, option trading strong, stability weak. The score is not a judgement on the company; it says the price, quality and premium do not line up for selling puts on it today.
Implied volatility is 64% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% top of the sweet spot. It still passes the 25-80% filter, but the Wheel Score rewards it less because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 125,166 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 7.8M shares a day on a market cap of $2.3B, with a beta of 2.17 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score rates that weak.
| Filter | Wheel Trade Filter | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Options that actually trade | Passes | Listed options with 1,000+ contracts of open interest and 100+ traded a day |
| 2 | A real business, not a gamble | Passes | Profitable over the last twelve months - not a speculative stock, fund or note |
| 3 | Below fair value | Fails | trades 2% above our fair value |
| 4 | Financially healthy | Fails | Piotroski 5/9 (under 6) |
| 5 | Can repay its debt | Passes | Long-term debt repaid from 3 years of operating cash flow or less (6 for real estate and utilities; banks and insurers are not judged on it) |
| 6 | No serious red flags | Fails | Red Flags score 45 (under 60) |
| 7 | A premium worth selling | Passes | Implied volatility 25-80% (enough premium, not a lottery ticket) |
| 8 | Big enough | Passes | Market cap $1 billion or more |
| 9 | Not a penny stock | Passes | Share price $5 or more |
| How it ranks | Rating | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | Weak | 2% above fair value | |
| Premium | Strong | implied volatility 64% | |
| Moat | Weak | moat 2.4/10 | |
| Health | Fair | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Red Flags | Weak | Red Flags score 45/100 | |
| Option trading | Strong | 17,923 contracts a day, 125,166 open interest | |
| Stability | Weak | beta 2.17, $2.3B company |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls: a stock must pass all 9 Wheel Trade Filters to score 70, and the score then ranks the ones that pass; the Sunday Scan is the top 10. It is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. How the Wheel Score works · the walkthrough lesson shows how it fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for UPST in the nightly calendar.
No analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the last 30 days.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Financial - Credit Services
The 12 companies below are the closest to Upstart Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Financial - Credit Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
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| ECPG Encore Capital Group, Inc. | 99.93 | 169.79 | +41% | 50Fair | $2.1B |
| WU The Western Union Company | 6.59 | 20.66 | +68% | 53Fair | $2.1B |
| AGM Federal Agricultural Mortgage | 205.58 | 332.98 | +38% | 80Good | $1.9B |
| EZPW EZCORP, Inc. | 29.52 | 64.16 | +54% | 51Fair | $1.7B |
| PRG PROG Holdings, Inc. | 39.89 | 140.44 | +72% | 48Weak | $1.6B |
| ATLC Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 99.75 | 502.10 | +80% | 34No options | $1.5B |
| ATLCL Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 6.125% Senior Notes due 2026 | 25.02 | 275.65 | +91% | 26No options | $1.5B |
| ATLCZ Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 9.25% Senior Notes due 2029 | 25.22 | 271.56 | +91% | 28No options | $1.5B |
| SLM SLM Corporation | 18.68 | 83.62 | +78% | 80Good | $3.5B |
| BFH Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | 104.83 | 428.64 | +76% | 85Prime | $4.0B |
| ATLCP Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 20.88 | 258.14 | +92% | 34No options | $1.3B |
| JSM Navient Corporation SR NT 6% 121543 | 15.59 | 45.78 | +66% | 29No options | $4.3B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about UPST
Is UPST undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 23.38 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 22.86 (2.3% above fair value, data as of 5 Nov 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of UPST and what does it mean?
UPST scores 29 out of 100 (Weak) - it fails Wheel Trade Filters 3, 4, 6. The Wheel Score ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned - in two parts: the 9 pass/fail Wheel Trade Filters (busy options, a real business, below fair value, Piotroski 6 or more, debt it can repay, a Red Flags score of 60 or more, implied volatility of 25-80%, a $1 billion company, $5 a share) and a ranking of how strongly a stock passes on value, premium, moat, health, red flags, option trading and stability. A stock that fails any filter stays under 70; 70-84 is Good, 85 and above is Prime. The Sunday Scan is the top 10 that pass, sorted by Wheel Score.
What is the GLS fair value for UPST?
22.86 per share as of 5 Nov 2026 - the simple average of the 5 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Upstart Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?
No upcoming earnings date is recorded for UPST in our calendar as of 5 Nov 2026; the Calendars page is refreshed every morning.
Does UPST have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 356 listed contracts with 125,166 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 64% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.