Stock fact sheet · data as of
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · United States · High Growth
Is UPST undervalued?
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) closed at 22.74 on 16 Oct 2026, close to the GLS average fair value of 21.46 (5.9% above fair value). 2 of the 5 models that produced a number sit above the price, 3 below - the market and our models roughly agree. With little margin of safety either way, the case for or against the stock rests on the quality numbers and the option premium rather than on price.
The 5 models disagree widely: EPV gives 6.94 while GLS Growth gives 38.25. A spread that wide means the average is sensitive to which methods you trust; the model table below shows where each one lands, and the Quote page lets you switch any of them off.
The nightly engine files UPST under High Growth: revenue and earnings growing fast enough that the growth-based models carry the valuation.
Nine valuation models for UPST
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | - | - | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital; no value tonight |
| Graham Number | 10.77 | -53% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 35.74 | +57% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 15.62 | -31% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 38.25 | +68% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | - | - | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10%; no value tonight |
| Payback Time | - | - | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself; no value tonight |
| DDM | - | - | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend; no value tonight |
| EPV | 6.94 | -69% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -10.04 | -144% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 38.13 | +68% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Financial health is weak: UPST passes 4 of the nine Piotroski tests. Our screens drop the stock at the health rule; a low score is often the reason a stock looks cheap on the valuation models. The GLS Moat score is low at 1.7 out of 10, which says the ten-year record of revenue, earnings, margins and returns on capital has been inconsistent - growth and shocks rather than steady compounding.
Returns on capital are thin or negative - ROIC 2.0%, ROE 6.7%, ROA 1.8% - with debt at 2.32 times equity and negative free cash flow. Debt of 2.32 times equity is on the high side for the sector and is worth checking against the cash flow before treating the stock as a long-term hold.
Upstart Holdings, Inc. pays no dividend, so the DDM model does not apply and a covered-call holder earns only the premium and any price gain. Revenue comes mainly from Servicing Fees, Net 54%, Servicing Fees 33%, Borrower Fees 9% (quarter Q2 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 8/10, insider activity 6/10 and Congressional trading 2/10 on the GLS smart-money scales; the last recorded Congressional buy was on 14 Jul 2026.
| Piotroski F-score | 4 / 9 | ROIC | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 1.7 / 10 | ROE | 6.7% |
| Debt / equity | 2.32 | ROA | 1.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -13.4% | Payout ratio | 0% |
| Institutions | 8 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 6 · 2 / 10 |
Wheel Score 52: Fair
UPST scores 52 out of 100 on the Wheel Score (Fair band, 50-64): a usable but unremarkable fit for the wheel strategy. The parts: Value 10/25, Health 9/20, Moat 3/15, Premium 17/20, Stability 14/20. Moat (3/15) is where the points are missing.
Implied volatility is 73% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out - above the 60% ceiling of the sweet spot. Premiums are large, but the Wheel Score tapers the Premium points (17 of 20) because volatility this high usually comes with a reason. The option chain is deep: 291,152 contracts of open interest across all expiries, which means tight fills at most strikes.
Volume runs at 5.0M shares a day on a market cap of $2.2B, with a beta of 2.17 - a high beta, so the stock tends to move more than the market and a strike can be gapped through; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 14 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 10 / 25 | -6% margin of safety | |
| Health | 9 / 20 | Piotroski 4/9 | |
| Moat | 3 / 15 | moat 1.7/10 | |
| Premium | 17 / 20 | implied volatility 73% | |
| Stability | 14 / 20 | 5.0M shares/day, $2.2B cap, beta 2.17 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
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The 12 companies below are the closest to Upstart Holdings, Inc. by market cap within the Financial - Credit Services industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| ATLC Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 93.54 | 497.20 | +81% | 39No options | $1.4B |
| ATLCP Atlanticus Holdings Corporation | 22.89 | 263.89 | +91% | 39No options | $1.4B |
| ATLCZ Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 9.25% Senior Notes due 2029 | 25.11 | 271.22 | +91% | 39No options | $1.4B |
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| BFH Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | 101.31 | 439.49 | +77% | 85Prime | $3.9B |
| JCAP Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock | 20.74 | 75.70 | +73% | 79Good | $1.2B |
| PRG PROG Holdings, Inc. | 29.82 | 113.07 | +74% | 76Good | $1.2B |
| SEZL Sezzle Inc. | 123.11 | 191.61 | +36% | 78Good | $4.2B |
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Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about UPST
Is UPST undervalued right now?
Not meaningfully: at 22.74 the stock trades within a few percent of the GLS average fair value of 21.46 (5.9% above fair value, data as of 16 Oct 2026).
What is the Wheel Score of UPST and what does it mean?
UPST scores 52 out of 100 (Fair). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for UPST?
21.46 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 5 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Upstart Holdings, Inc. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 3 Nov 2026 (after the close), 18 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does UPST have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 768 listed contracts with 291,152 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 73% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.