Stock fact sheet · data as of
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO): fair value, margin of safety and Wheel Score
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty · Bermuda · Defensive
Is AGO undervalued?
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) closed at 69.86 on 16 Oct 2026. The GLS average fair value - the simple average of the 9 valuation models that produced a positive number - is 187.20, which puts the price 63% below it. 7 of the 9 models value the shares above the current price. A gap this wide is rare in our universe of ~7,400 US stocks and is exactly what the Value part of the Wheel Score rewards; it is also where the question "why is it this cheap?" matters most.
There is a wide gap between DDM (21.78) and GLS Growth (485.06). When the models are this far apart the "fair value" is really a range, and the margin of safety above should be read with that range in mind.
The nightly engine files AGO under Defensive: a low beta, a dividend and positive earnings.
Nine valuation models for AGO
Each model turns the latest filed numbers into a value per share; the GLS fair value is the simple average of the ones that produce a positive number. The last two rows are shown for reference and never enter the average. The Quote page lets you switch any model off and add your own margin of safety.
| Model | Value | vs price | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | 219.27 | +214% | Present value of the projected free cash flows, discounted at the cost of capital |
| Graham Number | 149.57 | +114% | The most a defensive investor pays for the earnings and book value per share |
| Graham Growth | 200.69 | +187% | Graham's growth formula: EPS × (8.5 + 2 × growth), adjusted for bond yields |
| Lynch | 68.95 | -1% | EPS × the earnings growth rate (PEG of 1), growth capped at 25% |
| GLS Growth | 485.06 | +594% | EPS compounded ten years at the blended growth rate, discounted back at 15% a year |
| 10 Cap | 161.83 | +132% | Owner's earnings (operating cash flow less maintenance capex) capitalised at 10% |
| Payback Time | 289.61 | +315% | Eight years of compounded free cash flow: the price at which the business pays for itself |
| DDM | 21.78 | -69% | Dividend discount model: next year's dividend ÷ (10% − 3% growth); needs a dividend |
| EPV | 88.04 | +26% | Earnings power value: current EPS capitalised at 9% with no growth |
| Zombie (liquidation) | -43.93 | -163% | Current assets less all liabilities, per share: the balance-sheet floor. Not in the average |
| Wall St target | 88.00 | +26% | Analysts' average 12-month price target. Not in the average |
Quality and financial health
Assured Guaranty Ltd. scores 5 of 9 on the Piotroski F-score: a middling result that falls one point short of the Sunday Scan's "6 or more" rule. Some of the nine tests on profitability, leverage and efficiency are failed, so the accounts are worth a look before selling a put on the name. On durability AGO scores 5.3/10 on the GLS Moat - a middle reading; the Scorecard on the Quote page's Financials tab shows which ten-year lines are steady and which are not.
Returns on capital are moderate - ROIC 6.8%, ROE 8.9%, ROA 4.1% - with debt at 0.30 times equity and a free-cash-flow yield of 10.5%.
The dividend yield is 2.12% at a payout ratio of 19%; for a wheel trader holding assigned shares the dividend adds to the covered-call premium, and the ex-dividend date is worth knowing before a call is sold. Revenue comes mainly from Asset Management 100% (quarter Q1 FY2026).
Institutional ownership scores 10/10, insider activity 1/10 and Congressional trading 5/10 on the GLS smart-money scales.
| Piotroski F-score | 5 / 9 | ROIC | 6.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLS Moat | 5.3 / 10 | ROE | 8.9% |
| Debt / equity | 0.30 | ROA | 4.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 10.5% | Payout ratio | 19% |
| Institutions | 10 / 10 | Insiders · Congress | 1 · 5 / 10 |
Wheel Score 77: Good
With a Wheel Score of 77 - the Good band - Assured Guaranty Ltd. clears the Sunday Scan's "70 or higher" rule. The parts: Value 25/25, Health 11/20, Moat 8/15, Premium 20/20, Stability 13/20; Moat (8/15) scores lowest.
Implied volatility is 35% on the near-the-money contracts 20-60 days out: some premium, but under the 35-60% range the Wheel Score pays full marks for (20 of 20 points). Chain open interest is 10,297 contracts across all expiries - enough for the wheel at normal size.
Volume runs at 339k shares a day on a market cap of $3.1B, with a beta of 0.72 - a low beta, so day-to-day moves are smaller than the market's; the Stability part of the Wheel Score gives that 13 of 20.
| Part | Points | From | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 25 / 25 | 63% margin of safety | |
| Health | 11 / 20 | Piotroski 5/9 | |
| Moat | 8 / 15 | moat 5.3/10 | |
| Premium | 20 / 20 | implied volatility 35% | |
| Stability | 13 / 20 | 339k shares/day, $3.1B cap, beta 0.72 |
The Wheel Score ranks ~7,400 US stocks for selling cash-secured puts and covered calls; it is updated nightly and is not a recommendation. The walkthrough lesson shows how the score fits into a trade, start to finish.
Upcoming events
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days away; a 30-45-day put sold today would expire after it, which is worth weighing against the premium.
Earnings, dividend, IPO, split and economic calendars for the whole market, filterable to your watchlists.
Similar stocks in Insurance - Specialty
The 12 companies below are the closest to Assured Guaranty Ltd. by market cap within the Insurance - Specialty industry, each with its own fact sheet; the Compare page puts up to eight of them side by side.
| Stock | Close | Fair value | MoS | Wheel | Mkt cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMIH NMI Holdings, Inc. | 40.10 | 97.71 | +59% | 88Prime | $3.0B |
| RDN Radian Group Inc. | 33.41 | 81.50 | +59% | 85Prime | $4.4B |
| MTG MGIC Investment Corporation | 27.61 | 49.38 | +44% | 89Prime | $5.7B |
| ESNT Essent Group Ltd. | 63.76 | 105.84 | +40% | 83Prime | $5.7B |
| ACT Enact Holdings Inc. | 45.67 | 66.03 | +31% | 87Prime | $6.3B |
| FAF First American Financial Corporation | 63.43 | 106.39 | +40% | 87Prime | $6.5B |
| EIG Employers Holdings, Inc. | 50.45 | 21.00 | -140% | 46Weak | $906M |
| FNF Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | 39.68 | 112.61 | +65% | 91Prime | $10.6B |
| TIPT Tiptree Inc. | 16.90 | 265.66 | +94% | 72Good | $629M |
| ITIC Investors Title Company | 288.15 | 318.19 | +9% | 39No options | $544M |
| AMSF AMERISAFE, Inc. | 25.04 | 28.94 | +13% | 66Good | $464M |
| MBI MBIA Inc. | 4.39 | 15.52 | +72% | 45Weak | $224M |
⚖ Compare AGO with 7 of them All Financial Services stocks →
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A free GLS Equity account gets you nightly fair value and the Wheel Score on ~7,400 US stocks, a watchlist, the scanner preview and the Sunday Scan - the same eight-rule screen, emailed every week. Pro adds the full put and call scanners, unlimited watchlists with alerts and the trade journal.
Start free See the Sunday ScanQuestions about AGO
Is AGO undervalued right now?
By the GLS models, yes: at 69.86 the stock is 63% below the average fair value of 187.20 (data as of 16 Oct 2026). Whether the discount is deserved is the question to research next.
What is the Wheel Score of AGO and what does it mean?
AGO scores 77 out of 100 (Good). The Wheel Score blends the margin of safety (25 points), Piotroski health (20), the GLS moat (15), the option premium on offer (20) and trading stability (20) into one number that ranks stocks for the wheel strategy - selling cash-secured puts, then covered calls if assigned. 80 and above is Prime, 65-79 Good, 50-64 Fair, under 50 Weak.
What is the GLS fair value for AGO?
187.20 per share as of 16 Oct 2026 - the simple average of the 9 valuation models (out of nine: DCF, Graham Number, Graham Growth, Lynch, GLS Growth, 10 Cap, Payback Time, DDM and EPV) that produced a positive value. The models run every night on the latest filings; the Quote page lets you switch any of them off and add a margin of safety of your own.
When does Assured Guaranty Ltd. report earnings next?
The next earnings report is due on 5 Nov 2026 (after the close), 20 days from the data date of 16 Oct 2026. The Calendars page lists every upcoming report with its time of day.
Does AGO have listed options, and how liquid are they?
Yes. The nightly snapshot found 228 listed contracts with 10,297 open interest across all expiries and implied volatility of 35% on the near-the-money contracts. The Options scanner lists the cash-secured put and covered call set-ups with premium and annualised yield worked out.